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welshdentist
Grinder
Joined: 27 Dec 2010
Posts: 164
Skype: endodontic
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 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 4:15 pm Post subject: |
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| kierkegaard1 wrote: | also the fight analogy is v different. poker is about hourly. we need a very good reason to pass up a +ev spot. folding and waiting for 'a better spot' will reduce our hourly because we're rarely going to find a much better spot in terms of ev, and even if/when we do, it will have taken much longer and in the long term, not worth it.
in short, take every +ev spot.
in a fight, there is no hourly $
and the thing about folding AA in a tourney is because of ICM stuff that i dont understand. it's not at all relevent to husng. |
It's part of poker education learning the difference between ev decisions in different scenarios, such as as Kierk point out, hourly ROI, and the difference between tournament ring, and individual HUSNG.
I have found this to be beneficial as a thread, despite what is now to me an obvious +ev call of a shove during a HUSNG
I suppose the key is spotting immediately ingame a +ev call of a shove, or to shove ourselves during a hand. I am studying all forms of NLHE at the moment to gradually build a rounded poker brain.
Although original decision maybe not three pages, the discussion after has been worth it...
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_red_dog
Forum Veteran
Joined: 29 Jan 2010
Posts: 1201
Skype: mathew.brown2
Location: Australia
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 12:58 am Post subject: |
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how has this thread gotten so many replies.
To the OP, saying you think it is wrong to just go with the math and ignore your reads doesn't make sense.
You have a read, which you take to then make an assumption of his range of hands that he plays in such a way. The maths is then applied. You take your hand versus his range and stove it, you will then see the equity that you have versus said range.
You then take the pot odds to see what %equity you need to discover whether or not calling is profitable.
If the maths then says that it is a profitable call then you should take it. As kierk said, take every +EV spot.
I personally think folding here is horrible.
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blsmur
Reader of Souls
Joined: 16 Feb 2011
Posts: 686
Skype: blsmur
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:58 am Post subject: |
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| _red_dog wrote: | how has this thread gotten so many replies.
To the OP, saying you think it is wrong to just go with the math and ignore your reads doesn't make sense.
You have a read, which you take to then make an assumption of his range of hands that he plays in such a way. The maths is then applied. You take your hand versus his range and stove it, you will then see the equity that you have versus said range.
You then take the pot odds to see what %equity you need to discover whether or not calling is profitable.
If the maths then says that it is a profitable call then you should take it. As kierk said, take every +EV spot.
I personally think folding here is horrible. |
I guess the interest comes from the question " would you fold this " and the overall response is no , however I did and still manages to win this tournament quite handsomely thank you .
so here is the math from how I undrstand it
preflop if I shove versus his range say 40% of hands he is folding at least half of them because he is loose as and a bit mad
so my KK vs his range 20% call to my shove pre estimate
[img]
 [/img]
However no one raise preflop
so now how is my equity on the flop
well against his range when he shoves flop
his range is no longer wide it is narrow
say AA QQ JJ TT A4 Diamonds A8 J8 84 and 94 hh
if we give him any more 8 x hands I am so losing
poker stove give him 49% based on the hands above if we add any more 8x to it , his equity goes up to 63%
if he was just stealing 40 chips why not just donk bet 100 chips , this is a very common thing when they have the 4 or any pp they over bet to get any overcards to fold , I personally thought at the time he has just shoved because , I would think it was a bluff and call him lightly so i played my read of him having an 8x
so if I poker stove him with 8 x I am 11 %
so I stick with my read and the fold is then good
ty for your post you have made me feel better about the hand now ,
ultimately I may well be wrong with my read but I thought I was going to make up plenty of ground on subsequent hands not to be worried if I was making a mistake with so little invested into the pot |
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sandman369
Baller
Joined: 29 Jan 2010
Posts: 355
Skype: sandyman369
Location: CanaDUH!
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:07 am Post subject: |
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Let's see if this can end the back and forth debate.
Calling is more optimal but higher variance.
Folding is probably still +EV if you feel you can beat him later but not as optimal as calling, and is lower variance.
I might be wrong but that's the argument for each side as I see it. Plus it's probably not a HUGE difference either way, so let's stop beating this dead horse. |
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blsmur
Reader of Souls
Joined: 16 Feb 2011
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:24 am Post subject: |
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| sandman369 wrote: | Let's see if this can end the back and forth debate.
Calling is more optimal but higher variance.
Folding is probably still +EV if you feel you can beat him later but not as optimal as calling, and is lower variance.
I might be wrong but that's the argument for each side as I see it. Plus it's probably not a HUGE difference either way, so let's stop beating this dead horse. |
ok next time i will call  |
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Borg7
Reader of Souls
Joined: 20 Nov 2009
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Location: Germoney
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:25 am Post subject: |
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| sandman369 wrote: |
Calling is more optimal but higher variance.
Folding is probably still +EV if you feel you can beat him later but not as optimal as calling, and is lower variance. |
calling has waaay better expectation than folding, therefore your ev winrate will be higher if you call. variance is a function of winrate, therefore variance will be lower if you call.
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_red_dog
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