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Kim Cardassian

What the...?! Mathematical dilemma calculating winrate

Winrate per HU match: 60%
Winrate per 2 HU matches in succession: 60% of 60% = 36%

ROI on normal HU match (5% rake): 14,5% ROI
ROI on 4 man WTA shootout (7,5% rake): 34% ROI!

If this is correct then Brokerstar is going to have an easy time hitting 40%+ ROI seeing as he probably wins 65% of his HU matches.

I'm probably making a stupid mistake, though...
Jakester1288

So it's far more profitable to play shootouts?
Pltinum

It seems linear too.

If you got a winpercentage of 55, you get roi of 4,6 and 10,6 approximately.

So yeah it seems more profitable, but remember, you do have to play 2 games often. But even than! It seems better for the hourly too.
Kim Cardassian

Depends on how long you have to wait on average for matches to complete. I think average match time will go up due to this. I've won some HU matches in like 10 seconds and if that happens in a shootout you still gotta wait until the other match is completed.
nachtwacht

Many people before you have discussed this subject. The best one, explaining in detail wich would be preferred, can be found on 2+2. Definetly worth doing a search for it there.
BetMagicMoney

please read this

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com...g-4-man-vs-2-man-question-144437/

so yes your right his ROI will be much higher in shootouts, however you do need bigger bankroll requirements as the swings are larger (comparatively) in 4 mans.

Also kim keep in mind that your winrate in match 2 will be lower than in match 1 as your more likely to be playing a better player.
kierkegaard1

you make $ for winning 1 match in a 2man. you make 0$ for winning 1st match in a 4man. you could have a 100% winrate of 1st round matches and not win anything.
im sure this is missing in your calculations
_red_dog

BetMagicMoney wrote:
please read this

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com...g-4-man-vs-2-man-question-144437/

so yes your right his ROI will be much higher in shootouts, however you do need bigger bankroll requirements as the swings are larger (comparatively) in 4 mans.

Also kim keep in mind that your winrate in match 2 will be lower than in match 1 as your more likely to be playing a better player.


This statement is very.... I dunno, u just dont have to think about this because it's not going to be the case very often at all.
BetMagicMoney

surely your winrate will be less Vs a better opponent? if thats true then that opponent has a greater chance of winning the first match!

So if your winrate in game 1 is 58% then at a guess lets say that your average winrate in game 2 is 57% because your playinga higher percentage of good players.

I think that makes sense :S
savrababa

Quote:
So if your winrate in game 1 is 58% then at a guess lets say that your average winrate in game 2 is 57% because your playinga higher percentage of good players.


so basically you win 1% of the time less on the second match, but win +50% prize money... Rolling Eyes
_red_dog

Yes but u would just never calculate that into anything that revolves around the winrate.
U Cook Socks

I would say for the people who post on here complaining they are on a 4 buyin downswing, to totally leave 4 mans alone. Your gonna spontaniously combust when you have a huge run of winning first round matches and not cashing.

For those with a bit of patience, I am sure they are very profitable.
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