Probability Question

JamEaze · Probability Question

Hey all, this one is aimed at the maths guys.

I am working on building up an library of various probabilities and odds to help use in play. All the stuff like draws and so on I know, but there is one thing that I am trying to work out which I keep feeling I am getting wrong.

I am trying to work out the probability of my opponent being dealt y card when I have been dealt x card. For example if I have an Ace, what is the probabilty of my opponent being dealt a King. Likewise x and x, i.e. I get an Ace and my opponent gets an Ace. I then want to extend this to kickers and so forth.

I presume the maths is straightforward and looks like this:

y|x = 4/52 * 4/51 = 0.6%

x|x = 4/52 * 3/51 = 0.45%

and that to add the odds of us having the same kicker z would be:

z|y|x = 4/52 * 4/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 = 0.0032%

I not particularly confident with my maths, so a double check would be appreciated.

ChrisB

This is a waste of time sorry mate. Equities are awesome to know because it means we know when we have correct odds against a certain range, but knowing if he has a K x% we have an ace is really, really not very useful at all.

You can use card removal to an extent, like when you flop top two on a flop its hard for someone to shop up with middle or top set, but definitely not impossible.

I'm not sure what you would use the information to that your opponent has a Kx Y% of the time you have Ax?

peteoaten

As above but: there would be no value in this.

You have an A so probability he has an A in a HU is lower than any other card as only 3A left in pack. Probabiltiy of having a K or Q or any other card in the pack because you hold an A is exactly the same.

If you have a Ace, the probability of him holding a K has to be the same as him holding a 2 or any other card other than an A, as the cards are random and the cards you hold have no influence over the deal of the pack.

Perhaps you would be better off using combinations and eliminating combinations of hands

JamEaze

Sorry guys guess I didnt really explain myself properly. While knowing these probabilities cant directly translate into decision making (as you can with draw odds), this was part of an overall session in which I was going back over odds and equities and making sure I was fully brushed up on my numbers. I simply wanted to get a feel for what these preflop numbers were, and wanted to check that my maths was right.

ChrisB

I still fail to see the point of knowing these particular probabilities. I mean there's no bad thing about investigating the math behind poker, but I think your time could be focused more efficiently, maybe studying jamming ranges, calling ranges, etc etc

BetMagicMoney

JamEaze