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| ottocat01 |
Math Equation CheckI've been playing some MTT's lately and am trying to get more comfortable with EP shoving ranges and wanted to make sure my math equations are correct before running off and making a bunch of assumptions.I want to use the following situation and check the EV of shoving vs 3 assumed calling ranges. Not all calling ranges will be correct or optimal, just using them as an example. I also realize that the 1350 number could change if it happened to be one of the blinds who called. Blinds = 50/100. I'm UTG. I have 1200 chips. I have 55. I want to open shove. Ex 1) Calling Range = AQ+,99+ = 5.1% Ex 2) Calling Range = A10+, 66+ = 8.9% Ex 3) Calling Range = A8+, 22+, KJ+ = 15.5% Ex1) (.949*150)+(.051*.35*1350)-(.051*.65*1200)=142.35+24.09-39.78=126.66 Ex2) (.911*150)+(.089*.38*1350)-(.089*.62*1200)=136.65+45.66-66.21=116.10 Ex3) (.845*150)+(.15*.47*1350)-(.15*.53*1200)=126.75+95.18-95.4=126.53 Questions 1.)Now the 5.1%, 8.9% and 15.5% numbers are the % chances that a single individual will be dealt a calling hand, correct? How does the fact that there are 8 players left to act influence the equation if at all. What seperate equation must be drawn up if any to account for this. Would it mean that if using a 5.1% calling range with 8 opponents to act that there is a 40.8% chance of me getting called? Do I add the 5.1%'s together? multiply them? or ignore the fact there are 8 players? Am I being retarded and the 5.1%'s are all mutually exclusive events and shouldn't be compounded or I'm missing some math law completely? Should my equations actually look like this? Calling Range 1: (.592*150)+(.408*.35*1350)-(.408*.65*1200)=88+192.78-318.24=-37.46 Calling Range 2: (.288*150)+(.712*.38*1350)-(.712*.62*1200)=43.2+365.26-529.79=-121.33 Calling Range 3: (0*150)+(1*.47*1350)-(1*.53*1200)=0+634.5-636=-1.5 *Note I used 1 in the second two parenthesis because the % chance of getting called was theoretically over 100% so I used 1. Would this make shoving 55 in this spot a negative expectancy play against all the described ranges? 2.) Are my 1200 and 1350 chips used correctly or should it be the same number in both the parenthesis? 3.) Should you make -ChipEV plays late game due to payout structures, $EV, or whatever? 4.) Is the real value in shoving hands like 55 derived from playing AA, KK etc. in the same manner (which is profitable) and then simply adding all of their expected values together, dividing by the number of hands in my shoving range and arriving at a whole EV of the range? If so, wouldn't it still prove to profit my range if I dropped negative expectancy hands such as 55 from my range? |
| dzikijohnny |
There is a great free video here
http://www.splitsuit.com/videos Equity Exploration Video |