Archive for Tagpoker Forum A friendly place for winning poker players to share their strategy to making money playing poker.          Tagpoker Forum Forum Index -> Heads Up Poker Strategy savrababa Martingale system Here is an idea.. Let's say that any given player has at least a 40% winrate in HUSNG's. Suppose we have someone staking that guy with unlimited $$$. If we put this player to play a $5 game and he wins we have a profit of $5 obviously. If he looses we put him to play a $10 game. If he wins we go back at $5. If he looses we put him in a $20 game and so on. Eventually he will win. The profit we have every time he wins is $5. I'm not going to try this obviously, but I thought it was a funny way to exploit the game hjbear rake would be the negative factor i think savrababa True I forgot about rake. That would screw the plan pretty badly.. chesslw The fun things you can do with infinity... If you like money, don't ever try this-  not only for poker. Also with "infinite" money it doesn't matter what strategy you use, you can't ever win or lose and will always end up with the same as you started with. Simba It actually doesn't matter what the winrate is if your money is infinite. To prove this, suppose that we win a proportion x of our games (0 < x < 1), and also assume (as is reasonable considering that we have infinite money), that we can play as high as we want. We can use this to circumvent rake by simply jumping up more than one step (or for simplicity, we can just assume that there is no rake, to avoid having to factor in the superficial above consideration). Now, assume we play n games. We can consider the random variable Y ~ Bin(n, x) to model our situation. Now, we win money with probability P(Y > 0) = 1 - P(Y = 0) = 1 - (1 - x)^n. Since we have infinite money, we consider lim(n -> inf) in the above. lim(n -> inf) [1 - (1 - x)^n] = 1, since |1 - x| < 1, due to 0 < x < 1. So no matter what the probability of winning a game is (as long as it's not 0), we make money in the long term. By a very similar argument, you can actually prove that even a player winning 99.9% of his games will eventually go bust, if he plays an infinite number of games. Of course from the above analysis we conclude... infinity is weird. chesslw Simba wrote: It actually doesn't matter what the winrate is if your money is infinite. To prove this, suppose that we win a proportion x of our games (0 < x < 1), and also assume (as is reasonable considering that we have infinite money), that we can play as high as we want. We can use this to circumvent rake by simply jumping up more than one step (or for simplicity, we can just assume that there is no rake, to avoid having to factor in the superficial above consideration). Now, assume we play n games. We can consider the random variable Y ~ Bin(n, x) to model our situation. Now, we win money with probability P(Y > 0) = 1 - P(Y = 0) = 1 - (1 - x)^n. Since we have infinite money, we consider lim(n -> inf) in the above. lim(n -> inf) [1 - (1 - x)^n] = 1, since |1 - x| < 1, due to 0 < x < 1. So no matter what the probability of winning a game is (as long as it's not 0), we make money in the long term. By a very similar argument, you can actually prove that even a player winning 99.9% of his games will eventually go bust, if he plays an infinite number of games. Of course from the above analysis we conclude... infinity is weird. Yes- though even the notion of "we make money in the long term" isn't even well defined... Even if we win with prob 1 or 0, we still end up with the same amount as we started (or more, or less- depending on your definition). This whole idea bares a similarity to pyramid schemes which will only work if there were infinitely many people. The important thing to know is that even if you have a very large sum of money, trying a martingale betting system (the house has an edge on each bet) is always a bad idea (even though the chance that you lose is very small). You could then go on to talk about utility functions, and why people choose to play the lottery knowing that it is -EV. Now that is an interesting topic for discussion. Simba chesslw wrote: You could then go on to talk about utility functions, and why people choose to play the lottery knowing that it is -EV. Now that is an interesting topic for discussion. Haha, mmm, and the issue is complicated even more if you consider crazy convex utility functions... Can't say I'm an expert on that though - there was only one (optional) module on financial mathematics in my degree, and I only read up on it for fun, rather than being examined on it. I didn't do any measure theory so some of the probability and Lebesgue integrals were a bit "Hmm...". Working in finance might be interesting at some point, but I'm not into the whole suit-and-tie shenanigan; I would much rather be relaxed and comfortable where I work than feel 'proper'/'businessy'... savrababa I guarantee you working in finance is nowhere near fun. Also finance is not science. It is a way of complicating otherwise simple concepts, so that most people don't understand how money creates dept. Regarding people playing the lottery or any other form of gambling, it has to do with various emotional decisions. There is nothing rational about it. From my experience working in the casino I would say that most degenerate gamblers kind of do this to justify their incompetence in various other tasks. It gives them a good reason to say "I am cursed. I can't succeed because I am so unlucky" or something similar. These people subconsciously want to loose money. chesslw Haha. Lotteries can be +EV though- in the UK it can be +EV when there is a rollover, and it is very +EV with a double rollover (though variance is humongous). Even if you buy out all the tickets (I'm not sure if this is legal), there is a big chance that there are multiple jackpot winners (i.e. still big variance)... You'd be surprised how many people are ignorant of basic maths. My uncle once asked me to help him win a raffle by working out patterns in sequences... savrababa They put those notepads next to the roulettes  in the casino. They are for players to keep the sequence of numbers that came up so that they can break the roulette algorithm I guess   You won't imagine how many people fall for this and sit and write down number after number to get some kind of edge... _red_dog inf money is required.  Also with HUSNG's u have a limit on how high u can play. Simba savrababa wrote: They put those notepads next to the roulettes  in the casino. They are for players to keep the sequence of numbers that came up so that they can break the roulette algorithm I guess   You won't imagine how many people fall for this and sit and write down number after number to get some kind of edge... Haha, that's both really depressing (because people can be that stupid), and really elating (because no doubt some of those people play poker) ... Kim Cardassian What you said about a player always going bust if he plays infinite games has me in a pickle. On one hand, there is always a really small chance to go bust. But because you win...because uhm...but.... Ok so basicly we're all being fucking stupid because in the long term we always lose?! tosapane Re: Martingale system savrababa wrote: Here is an idea.. Let's say that any given player has at least a 40% winrate in HUSNG's. Suppose we have someone staking that guy with unlimited $$$. If we put this player to play a $5 game and he wins we have a profit of $5 obviously. If he looses we put him to play a $10 game. If he wins we go back at $5. If he looses we put him in a $20 game and so on. Eventually he will win. The profit we have every time he wins is $5. I'm not going to try this obviously, but I thought it was a funny way to exploit the game its still an ev- play and you can still very likely go broke if you have a 15+ loosing streak which is likely with a guy w a 40%wr icemanv6 You laugh at the roulette wheel about writing down the numbers..Well laugh again, as someone years ago did exactly that and noticed over a big sample that a few numbers kept appearing a considerable amount more then others due to the wheels getting worn out effectively and being out of balance or whatever. Made a small fortune with his family's help to the tune of millions on a game that people said couldn't be beat chesslw @icemanv6- I've heard a lot about that actually. It is definitely possible to be able to "de-randomise" a specific roulette wheel- but tbh it's not easy, and now the casinos regularly check their wheels. You'd have to be observing the wheel for a long time and make measurements with respect to the speed of the initial spin and the the force applied in the release of the ball. Bogus wheels just don't exist anymore in any proper casino... icemanv6 The point is you should never discount anything . Did you know there was a small group who marked cards with a invisible ink to the human eye and camera systems? The player/s used specially designed contact lenses that could see the ink so they basically marked an entire blacklack deck for all the high value cards, again they won millions although i believed they quit whilst they were ahead to stop suspicion arising. Still an interesting story, might google it actually. chesslw Yep you are right of course- especially when it comes to ways of making seemingly "easy money", people will be creatively resourceful. Though the martingale betting system, or any other betting system can be disregarded as total rubbish... Pongo If you have infinite money tho, why grind and try to make $5 for every "cycle" playing like this? BetMagicMoney Pongo wrote: If you have infinite money tho, why grind and try to make $5 for every "cycle" playing like this? because if you had infinite money why would you play at all also please try not to bump dead threads z1s6arn What is bumping a dead thread? BetMagicMoney z1s6arn wrote: What is bumping a dead thread? basically making a post in a thread that hasn't received any new posts in over a month. i typically don't mind if its a strat thread (as long as its not like 3/4 months+) but for something like this it doesn't seem necessary as its hard to add anymore useful information. im not trying to stop people posting obv but just trying to keep the forum clean of clutter _red_dog U TELL HIM BOSS _red_dog *BUMP U Cook Socks BetMagicMoney wrote: Pongo wrote: If you have infinite money tho, why grind and try to make $5 for every "cycle" playing like this? because if you had infinite money why would you play at all also please try not to bump dead threads Why? If someone finds a thread interesting, that they only just come across, why can't they comment on it ? Is it against forum rules ? If so, why not just delete all " dead threads" BetMagicMoney because if you delete all the threads the information wouldn't be there to read and to inform people its nothing personal to anyone, its just annoying to open a thread and finding its 4 months old        Tagpoker Forum Forum Index -> Heads Up Poker Strategy Page 1 of 1