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blsmur

i folded kings would you ?

hi i was playing a 4 man  husng today and made it to the 2 nd stage  i was watching the other table for quite a while and had a pretty good read on them both  they got the Green tag which is "FISH " (i am of the opinion i can nail these guys anytime that is why i call them FISH )    any way on the very first hand I am dealt  pocket Kings   and here is how the hand unfolded   what would you have done ?



Poker Stars, $3.29 + $0.21 NL Hold'em Tournament, 10/20 Blinds, 2 Players
[URL="http://www.leggopoker.com"]LeggoPoker.com[/URL] - [URL="http://www.leggopoker.com/converter"]Hand History Converter[/URL]

BB: 1,520
Hero (BTN): 1,480

Pre-Flop: (30) K K dealt to Hero (BTN)
Hero calls 10, BB checks

Flop: (40) 4 8 8 (2 Players)
BB bets 1,500 and is All-In, Hero folds

Results: 40 Pot
BB showed and WON 40 (+40 NET)
BetMagicMoney

Borg7

raise pre, and fuck no dont fold on that flop
doodiewiz

For some reason this hand is really funny imo. The shove of the full stack into a 40 chip limped pot...
sandman369

First off WHY would you limp???????????
As played he PROBABLY wouldn't shove trips or better because you limped so he doesn't know you have a good hand. My bet is this is a semibluff with a draw or maybe overprotective 4 hoping a flush draw will call?

What kind of fish did you see him as from the other game? Only reason I would fold as played is if the reads indicate that he only bets like this with great hands (read: only folding less than 1% of the time)
blsmur

sandman369 wrote:
First off WHY would you limp???
What kind of fish did you see him as from the other game? Only reason I would fold as played is if the reads indicate that he only bets like this with great hands.


well i have to agree about the limp pre but I always limp first few hands

as to my reads yes absolute maniac when he hits

i put him on a  middling hand  or he would been all in pre for sure   so it was easy for me think he has an 8x  

to me i had a good investment   why risk it all on one hand i have 40 chips invested in
blsmur

Borg7 wrote:
raise pre, and fuck no dont fold on that flop



i am wondering why we dont have a "donkey pooh " equivalent  for "fuck " it could be something like  donkey lovers   etc  , just thinking aloud
U Cook Socks

ridiculous fold imo.
The Angler

blsmur wrote:
sandman369 wrote:
First off WHY would you limp???
What kind of fish did you see him as from the other game? Only reason I would fold as played is if the reads indicate that he only bets like this with great hands.


well i have to agree about the limp pre but I always limp first few hands

as to my reads yes absolute maniac when he hits

i put him on a  middling hand  or he would been all in pre for sure   so it was easy for me think he has an 8x  

to me i had a good investment   why risk it all on one hand i have 40 chips invested in



You always limp pre for the first few hands, fine but don't limp monsters, I'm pretty sure that's one of the first things Broker taught you.
doodiewiz

Yeah first hand your opp doesn't know how you play preflop, so you could min raise or 3x, 4x...if he's that much of a donkey from watching the previous game and he calls big preflop raises! You have Kings! You wanna get money in the pot. Not try and limp trap first hand or play them passive!
chesslw

Just curious (this isn't really an important question anyway)- what hands are you guys calling here vs the open shove? Ignoring the fact that you might have played preflop differently. AKhh? A4? 77?

Imo this is A high, fd, 4x, 22-33(maybe), 55-77 a lot (maybe throw in some random bluffs).
welshdentist

Show's where my HU confidence is

"fuck, he's got quads, fold....."

Off to rewatch all of the course before playing another game  Embarassed
U Cook Socks

welshdentist wrote:
Show's where my HU confidence is

"fuck, he's got quads, fold....."

Off to rewatch all of the course before playing another game  Embarassed


I think you are thinking about things wrongly though.

To try and help...

He has a range, you need to know how you do versus that range. In my opinion you crush his range, there are two 8s on the board, so it is less likely he has an 8, than a 4 for example.

Also, you would assume most players wouldn't just shove with an 8 here (it's possible of course, but still less likely than him getting over protective with a 4, or a low pp)

If he has an 8, pocket Aces just lol and loadl a new game up, for the other 99% of the time, collect a buy in.
kierkegaard1

a few things:

we're not folding QQ to an open shove. and its kind of the same concept. there are only a couple of hands that beat us and plenty of other hands that we beat. We have to look at the range as a whole.
If we're facing an open shove first hand of the match. we can assign a range of 22-AA (although AA/KK is very unlikely as people dont want to scare off their opponent with a weak hand) they can also have lots of Ax, and then lots of random stuff (they're a fish) so against this range we are behind with QQ only a very small amount of the time, or close to never, so its a call.

In a similar way, his range in the hand you posted is 8x, 4x, flush draws, random pairs. if we put together all of these hands to form a range we only lose to the 8x and are ahead of everything else. so by calling we're MAKING MONEY against his RANGE, no matter what hand he happens to show up with.

Always raise here. ESPECIALLY if its first hand of a game. i normally 2-2.5x early on, but if i get dealt a monster 1st hand i will 3x just because villain isnt aware of what my standard raise size is yet so alarm bells wont be ringing by raising to a larger size.

the other thing to note is that it doesnt matter how many chips youve invested on a previous street. whether its 10chips or 500 chips, all that matters is that you make the correct decision on each street. forget what 'were' your chips that you put in, that doesnt matter.
U Cook Socks

I heart Kierk

Out of interest Kierk, what hands do you call an openshove with p/f first hand of a match with no reads?

It prob never happens to you, but it does in the games I am playing right now.

I usually go with 77+ AJ+

I even think that is to tight to be honest.
kierkegaard1

It's probably fine. I've no idea. Been ages since its happened to me
blsmur

I have found at these low levels  when a fish is betting big or shoving they think they have the nuts  on the flop

preflop I get some shoving anything  at all just because they are playing tough  and are pretty sure we will fold    as for calling range I am very tight at 75 bb and possibly just AA KK QQ  again if there is nothing in the pot  why waste  a game  , I have called in the past with some lesser cards and it is just a gamble  they often have an A x or sometime 67s  but with no money in the pot  there is no point to calling sometimes they shove 5 hands in a row  and then i just pick a range to play according to that and take my best  bet usually limp call with big pairs  but I dont see any sense in being to loose when playing maniacs as we can catch them when we have the best hand later as i did in the hand that started this thread
blsmur

kierkegaard1 wrote:
a few things:

we're not folding QQ to an open shove. and its kind of the same concept. there are only a couple of hands that beat us and plenty of other hands that we beat. We have to look at the range as a whole.
If we're facing an open shove first hand of the match. we can assign a range of 22-AA (although AA/KK is very unlikely as people dont want to scare off their opponent with a weak hand) they can also have lots of Ax, and then lots of random stuff (they're a fish) so against this range we are behind with QQ only a very small amount of the time, or close to never, so its a call.

In a similar way, his range in the hand you posted is 8x, 4x, flush draws, random pairs. if we put together all of these hands to form a range we only lose to the 8x and are ahead of everything else. so by calling we're MAKING MONEY against his RANGE, no matter what hand he happens to show up with.

Always raise here. ESPECIALLY if its first hand of a game. i normally 2-2.5x early on, but if i get dealt a monster 1st hand i will 3x just because villain isnt aware of what my standard raise size is yet so alarm bells wont be ringing by raising to a larger size.

the other thing to note is that it doesnt matter how many chips youve invested on a previous street. whether its 10chips or 500 chips, all that matters is that you make the correct decision on each street. forget what 'were' your chips that you put in, that doesnt matter.


Thanks I really do appreciate you taking the time   , however  MY READ was he would ck fold with nothing  and shove if he has something  so I could easily put him on 8 x there, he may well of had 22  , who knows  but I will guarantee you he did not have AIR

while the maths overall might be to call, my read  took precedence   right or wrong  

should we just be mechanical and not use reads ?
Zipps

well even vs. a range without draws (22-88, 8x, 4x) you are having at least 60% equity.
chesslw

Quote:
Thanks I really do appreciate you taking the time   , however  MY READ was he would ck fold with nothing  and shove if he has something  so I could easily put him on 8 x there, he may well of had 22  , who knows  but I will guarantee you he did not have AIR


First of all Kierk said:

Quote:
In a similar way, his range in the hand you posted is 8x, 4x, flush draws, random pairs.


[ ] His post said villain's range has air.

And also, when you said:

Quote:
while the maths overall might be to call, my read  took precedence   right or wrong


[x] Wrong (and does not compute?!??)...

So by your logic, if villain's range has ANY hand that beats your hand, you should not call? For example (repeating Kierk's example somewhat), if villain is open shoving 22-AA preflop, you are still folding QQ because he is not shoving air, and you might be behind vs AA or KK?

One thing that's annoying about poker (for me at least), is that even when you go to showdown and the hand didn't work out for you this time, you might have not made a mistake in the hand anyway (and vice versa if if went well)- and I think you don't really get this important idea of "hand ranges".
sandman369

chesslw wrote:
One thing that's annoying about poker (for me at least), is that even when you go to showdown and the hand didn't work out for you this time, you might have not made a mistake in the hand anyway (and vice versa if if went well)- and I think you don't really get this important idea of "hand ranges".


Good point. I think it becomes too easy to start thinking you could've done something different when you happen to run into the 1 out of 4 chance that you're beat. I know sometimes I make a play when I'm sure I'm 75% to win for example, and get angry when I lose, as if being 3:1 to win means I should win this one (every time it happens). Probability and thus poker do not work that way.
welshdentist

U Cook Socks wrote:
welshdentist wrote:
Show's where my HU confidence is

"fuck, he's got quads, fold....."

Off to rewatch all of the course before playing another game  Embarassed


I think you are thinking about things wrongly though.

To try and help...

He has a range, you need to know how you do versus that range. In my opinion you crush his range, there are two 8s on the board, so it is less likely he has an 8, than a 4 for example.

Also, you would assume most players wouldn't just shove with an 8 here (it's possible of course, but still less likely than him getting over protective with a 4, or a low pp)

If he has an 8, pocket Aces just lol and loadl a new game up, for the other 99% of the time, collect a buy in.


Having rewatched some videos I can see where I would wrongly read this. If he had quads he would never shove, why shove the nuts?

I would think more as you say, a pocket pair, likely low or a maniac shove protecting. I re-read red dogs post on ev.

Would this be a case of a -ve EV fold and a +ve call over the long run given the few cards we are behind to?

A case of, we ran into the top of his range, unlucky....

Would we fold if he was the tightest nitty nit nit of all time and this was the first out of line thing he does?
sandman369

welshdentist wrote:
Would we fold if he was the tightest nitty nit nit of all time and this was the first out of line thing he does?


Yes but that would require way way more history with him than in this situation. But hypothetically if you have that very solid read that he only bets big with monsters, then yes.
blsmur

hey guys  

the thing is from my point of view there are 40 chips in the pot   thats  it  what is there to fight over for a 40 chip pot  i was happy to dump it it on the off chance I am losing  because I figured  if I call i might win and if I fold  I am down 20 chips    it is hardly worth me bothering to find out if he has an 8 or not  .

as for the level of the game  I played 1,50  and $3.50  games  , the common element in all these games is they are total fish  they bet like crazy when they have it and they fold when they don't  and if he has  any other pocket pair  other than aces I doubt he is shoving . now this a generalization  of the player type in this level of games It took me around 50 games to realize if i fold to their aggression except when i have a great hand I just keep on winning  and when i have a read i do the usual stuff like donk the flop or turn depending on the players preference of when he is folding  of the 100 different players 2 of them got my next level above fish and that is fish that gets tricky   . so they don't seem to differentiate much between 2 pair of a set being the nuts  and they are willing to go broke with those hands , most are willing to go broke on either top or 2nd pair and quite a few will call down 3 pot size bets with just bottom pair

So today i find my self doubting when i should fold because of this thread  and i lost 8 out of 10 games   so hopefully tomorrow i can find the fold button much quicker and  keep stealing from them when they fold  and screw em when they call or bet at me and I have a hand worth calling or raising with  , and not call thinking surely he didn't call a 3 bet with 84 suited   and wont fold bottom pair  while i got top pair and he hit the 8 on the river  , now don't laugh they do it all the time  and not recognizing that has cost me money  . another tell tale sign of when they make a hand is they go all in flop, turn ,river, they dont care ,they just expect you to call and the way to beat them is fold  

perhaps when I get back to $7 and $15 games i will be able to change but at this level  I really need to be folding unless I am sure I have them beat it is the only thing that has worked for me so far
So when i folded my kk hand i was thinking in this mode  and not in the mode that every here is thinking in  , i have called these type hands when they shove  like this before and i have won some and lost some .
welshdentist

I have to say I understand both point of view.

Even if +ev why suck out for 40 chips if you know you will beat the fish in this particular game if you fold.....

Like folding AA in certain tournament scenarios....
U Cook Socks

welshdentist wrote:
I have to say I understand both point of view.

Even if +ev why suck out for 40 chips if you know you will beat the fish in this particular game if you fold.....

Like folding AA in certain tournament scenarios....


Okay, imagine you run this situation a million times, everytime he has an 8 you lose, everytime he doesn't you win. I know the board can run out in wierd ways so this wont always be the case, but to keep it simple assume this.

Now run this a million times, everytime you win you get a buy in, everytime you lose, you lose one. How much money do you think you just won or lost ? given that there is more chance he has a 4 than an 8 because of card removal, and other random hands he could also do this with. I think you just lost a lot of money by folding.
nitid1

I have read this post with great interest and understand the frustration of being put all in on a paired flop while holding KK.

Now what i share with blsmur is we play the lowest stakes. I think this may explain quite a bit since players make big mistakes there, so i would dare to fold KK in this situation as well, though this will depend on my read of villain. 90% of times i would not fold i guess. Now if he does it the first time early on in the game and i have no reads i may just fold this one. Not raising KK preflop is a mistake tough.  
Anyhow it is not a big leak (folding in this spot) since this situation occurs rarely. The biggest leaks to work on are those situations that repeat themselves regularly.

For example: Not c betting unless holding the nuts after preflop raising and then always folding to villains flop bet is a huge leak! Or calling along with middle/top pair when a tight passive player suddently starts attacking.

I replayed some of my games and found that in certain spots i loose bigtime because of calling the second barrel with a high card only, just because i think villain is bluffing. Early on this is ok i guess if betting is low, but when blinds are higher this becomes quite expensive.

Last week i folded trips with a straight and flush draw on the board and being raised heavily on the river. This also is rather rare.

I feel like the whole ev discussion is about deception. The better the opponent gets, the more he can extract maximum value in each situation. He may also polarise his range so it now becomes very hard to judge what he is holding exactely. Then no other solution remains than judge his range and play accordingly, even when you think you may be beat?

But with players basically showing you their holdings or just bluffing that much is becomes so obvious, i still believe it is better EV to wait for the best spot to kill them, than just play the range in every situation?

I like martial arts ( and some other members as well) so here is a specific situation:

You have to fight a drunk guy. Now suppose you have the stats that say 90% for sure he will try to hit you with his left fist and aim for your nose. You already know how you will handle this and you prepare accordingly. Now instead of hitting you he kicks you in the groin.
Would it not have been wise to just take a good look (takes some steps back) at him and wait untill he "being drunk" (fish) telegraphs you the way he will fight?

I am a total newbie in HU. So correct me at all times should i see things wrong.

Good luck!
welshdentist

U Cook Socks wrote:
welshdentist wrote:
I have to say I understand both point of view.

Even if +ev why suck out for 40 chips if you know you will beat the fish in this particular game if you fold.....

Like folding AA in certain tournament scenarios....


Okay, imagine you run this situation a million times, everytime he has an 8 you lose, everytime he doesn't you win. I know the board can run out in wierd ways so this wont always be the case, but to keep it simple assume this.

Now run this a million times, everytime you win you get a buy in, everytime you lose, you lose one. How much money do you think you just won or lost ? given that there is more chance he has a 4 than an 8 because of card removal, and other random hands he could also do this with. I think you just lost a lot of money by folding.


I agree, it's one of the hardest concepts to understand that when a massive shove like that occurs, you think.... I'm beat....But know in the long run it all works out +ev

Important lesson, thanks guys.

I had the same in my local pub freeze out, I hit the 9c on the turn for low end of straight flush, I raise, guy on button shoves.
I'm looking at him and I'm thinking he has the Ac, am sure he has it, but called anyway as there are so many other cards he is shoving...knowing I would do the same every time.

He turned to Ac for the Royal, but I knew I was right even though it knocked me out.
kierkegaard1

that spot is v different as his value shoving range is very narrow compared to the OP.

not sure how else to explain this spot. its honestly not worth 3 pages of discussion
kierkegaard1

also the fight analogy is v different. poker is about hourly. we need a very good reason to pass up a +ev spot. folding and waiting for 'a better spot' will reduce our hourly because we're rarely going to find a much better spot in terms of ev, and even if/when we do, it will have taken much longer and in the long term, not worth it.

in short, take every +ev spot.

in a fight, there is no hourly $


and the thing about folding AA in a tourney is because of ICM stuff that i dont understand. it's not at all relevent to husng.
welshdentist

kierkegaard1 wrote:
also the fight analogy is v different. poker is about hourly. we need a very good reason to pass up a +ev spot. folding and waiting for 'a better spot' will reduce our hourly because we're rarely going to find a much better spot in terms of ev, and even if/when we do, it will have taken much longer and in the long term, not worth it.

in short, take every +ev spot.

in a fight, there is no hourly $


and the thing about folding AA in a tourney is because of ICM stuff that i dont understand. it's not at all relevent to husng.


It's part of poker education learning the difference between ev decisions in different scenarios, such as as Kierk point out, hourly ROI, and the difference between tournament ring, and individual HUSNG.

I have found this to be beneficial as a thread, despite what is now to me an obvious +ev call of a shove during a HUSNG

I suppose the key is spotting immediately ingame a +ev call of a shove, or to shove ourselves during a hand. I am studying all forms of NLHE at the moment to gradually build a rounded poker brain.

Although original decision maybe not three pages, the discussion after has been worth it...

Cool
_red_dog

how has this thread gotten so many replies.  

To the OP, saying  you think it is wrong to just go with the math and ignore your reads doesn't make sense.  
You have a read, which you take to then make an assumption of his range of hands that he plays in such a way.  The maths is then applied.  You take your hand versus his range and stove it, you will then see the equity that you have versus said range.

You then take the pot odds to see what %equity you need to discover whether or not calling is profitable.

If the maths then says that it is a profitable call then you should take it.  As kierk said, take every +EV spot.  

I personally think folding here is horrible.
blsmur

_red_dog wrote:
how has this thread gotten so many replies.  

To the OP, saying  you think it is wrong to just go with the math and ignore your reads doesn't make sense.  
You have a read, which you take to then make an assumption of his range of hands that he plays in such a way.  The maths is then applied.  You take your hand versus his range and stove it, you will then see the equity that you have versus said range.

You then take the pot odds to see what %equity you need to discover whether or not calling is profitable.

If the maths then says that it is a profitable call then you should take it.  As kierk said, take every +EV spot.  

I personally think folding here is horrible.



I guess the interest comes from  the question  " would you fold this " and the overall response is no   , however I did and still manages to win this tournament quite handsomely  thank you .

so here is the math  from how I undrstand it  

preflop  if I shove  versus his range say 40% of hands  he is folding at least half of them because he is loose as  and a bit mad

so my KK vs his range 20% call to my shove pre estimate
[img]
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However no one raise preflop  

so now how is my equity  on the flop  


well  against his range when he shoves flop  
his range is no longer wide it is narrow  

say  AA QQ JJ TT  A4 Diamonds  A8 J8  84  and  94 hh

if we give him any more 8 x hands  I am so losing

poker stove give him 49% based on the hands above  if we add any more 8x to it , his equity goes up to 63%

if he was just stealing 40 chips why not just donk bet 100 chips , this is a very common thing when they have the 4   or any pp they over bet to get any overcards  to fold   , I personally thought at the time he has just  shoved because , I would think it was a bluff and call him lightly so i played my read of him having an 8x

so if I poker stove him with 8 x     I am 11 %

so  I stick with my read  and the fold is then good  


ty for your post  you have made me feel better about the hand now ,

ultimately  I may well be wrong with my read  but I thought I was going to make up  plenty of ground on subsequent hands   not to be worried if I was making a mistake  with so little invested into the pot
sandman369

Let's see if this can end the back and forth debate.

Calling is more optimal but higher variance.
Folding is probably still +EV if you feel you can beat him later but not as optimal as calling, and is lower variance.

I might be wrong but that's the argument for each side as I see it. Plus it's probably not a HUGE difference either way, so let's stop beating this dead horse.
blsmur

sandman369 wrote:
Let's see if this can end the back and forth debate.

Calling is more optimal but higher variance.
Folding is probably still +EV if you feel you can beat him later but not as optimal as calling, and is lower variance.

I might be wrong but that's the argument for each side as I see it. Plus it's probably not a HUGE difference either way, so let's stop beating this dead horse.



ok next time i will call   Laughing
Borg7

sandman369 wrote:

Calling is more optimal but higher variance.
Folding is probably still +EV if you feel you can beat him later but not as optimal as calling, and is lower variance.


calling has waaay better expectation than folding, therefore your ev winrate will be higher if you call. variance is a function of winrate, therefore variance will be lower if you call.
_red_dog

^^^

raise pre, don't fold now.

/thread
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