Correct call against maniac?

golden · Correct call against maniac?

Poker Stars $20+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 1116145
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN/SB): t1272 63.60 BBs
BB: t1728 86.40 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with 4

A

Hero raises to t40, BB raises to t100, Hero calls t60

Flop: (t200) 5

7

3

(2 players)
BB bets t1628 all in, Hero calls t1172 all in

Turn: (t2544) 3

(2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t2544) 5

(2 players - 2 are all in)

thoughts?

nachtwacht

My thoughts ?

Perfect hand to put into pokerstove and see what the outcome is. Assign villain a range with wich you think he could be doing this and see how your hand holds up against that range.

Then, for practice, think about what other kinds of players might be holding in that same spot and see how you do against that....

Thats the first thoughts that come to mind. This realy is an easy hand to find a solution for yourself. If you post your solution here I am happy to see if I would have come to the same outcome.

kolonel

The great logical mind returneth...........

Must catch up soon mate, and look forward to your insightful explanations (hopefully without the flames).

kolonel

dzikijohnny

I think the most important thing is how deep you are. You are so deep I can't think why you would want to do anything but fold. But I would have a hard time doing it. And I usually hate myself for calling.

You are 55/45 vs AA and still have 40% equity vs a set of 7s. But, I still think you can wait.

nachtwacht

Jasonsc

Pokerstove is all well and good...but being that is is a maniac, surely we will find very many, how shall I say, less variant spots, pretty quickly?

That being said, I'm not sure if I would always find a fold here.

forced

Im pretty sure im calling that....

nachtwacht

nachtwacht

dzikijohnny

Nacht.. I was putting those into Pokerstove as the worse case example.

cardassian

I'm calling here.
We have nut flush draw, double gutshot draw and an over card versus a maniac.
I think we have far too much equity to fold.

nachtwacht

Aha.

So it's not realy indicative for the real range of villain... it's just what could be his "top range". Against that we allready have 47.5% wich is allready making this +EV

I hate waiting when I allready have found a +EV spot Smile

icemanv6

How does he hand do vs the 2pair possibilities, isn't he only beating top pair and a bluff?

Jasonsc

Thanks for that nacht, I'll certainly be having a read of that tomorrow morning!

Jasonsc

Sorry for double post, but I decided I'd mess with this on stove real quick.

Went to put in a range for a maniac, and loose as the term is, I came up with an incredibly wide range of what he COULD do this with...maybe this range is too wide?
But, for a maniac who we have know reads on, other than that he is a maniac ofcourse....

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,066,768 games 2.187 secs 1,402,271 games/sec

Board: 5d 7d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.481% 70.24% 02.22% 2154004 67992.00 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 28.519% 26.69% 02.22% 818526 67992.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

---

forced

ottocat01

This is a very easy call. We can't sit back and wait for 65/35 situations as some are implying. If he's a true maniac, then on that flop he can be shoving extremely wide. So wide that you'll be getting that 65% or better, which is way more than we should ever need.. Let's also look at a few different villain hand ranges for slightly more sane villains. I just slapped a bunch of different ranges together to show that almost regardless of his holdings, this is a call. The very bottom two show this as a fold, but against a maniac his range should be significantly wider.

200 Chips in Pot. 1172 to call. Total pot would be 1172+1172+200=2544. 1172/2544=46% Equity needed to call.

Board: 5d 7d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.824% 60.67% 02.15% 205431 7279.00 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 37.176% 35.03% 02.15% 118591 7279.00 { 33+, AKs, A7s-A4s, K2s+, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s+, 86s+, 73s+, 64s+, 53s, 42s+, AKo, A7o-A4o, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 97o+, 86o+, 73o+, 64o+, 53o, 42o+ }

Slightly Tighter Range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.851% 64.21% 00.64% 94722 939.50 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 35.149% 34.51% 00.64% 50909 939.50 { 77+, 55, 33, A7s, K6s+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 86s+, 75s, 64s, A7o, 86o+, 75o, 64o }

Tighter:

Board: 5d 7d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.459% 64.03% 00.43% 40569 272.50 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 35.541% 35.11% 00.43% 22246 272.50 { 77+, 55, 33, KTs+, QJs }

Nit:

Board: 5d 7d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.988% 60.48% 00.51% 16167 135.00 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 39.012% 38.51% 00.51% 10293 135.00 { TT+ }

Big Hands on Flop:

Board: 5d 7d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.692% 55.20% 00.49% 19673 175.50 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 44.308% 43.82% 00.49% 15616 175.50 { TT+, 77, 55, 33 }

Hands that currently have us crushed:

Board: 5d 7d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.555% 37.11% 02.45% 7715 508.50 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 60.445% 58.00% 02.45% 12058 508.50 { 77, 55, 33, 64s, 64o }

Another:

Board: 5d 7d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.641% 43.07% 00.57% 5117 67.50 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 56.359% 55.79% 00.57% 6628 67.50 { AA, 77, 55, 33 }

nachtwacht

Nicely done ottocat.

I wanted to add one more combination. Basicaly it's the same "he has us crushed" combo (second from the bottom from ottocat) but I added just 4 more hands.

Board: 7d 5d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.059% 44.93% 02.13% 11121 526.00 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 52.941% 50.82% 02.13% 12577 526.00 { 77, 55, 33, KcJc, KdJd, 64s, KdJs, KhJs, 64o }

What I want to show here is, how often does villain have to be "semi" bluffing to make this a profitable call ?

In the combinations that villain has here, he will have the following hands with the following frequencies:

77 - 3
55 - 3
33 - 3
64s - 3
64o - 8

Those are 20 hands out of the total of 1326 possible combinations. To start with, it is very unlikely that anyone will actualy end up with exactly that range...

If we however add the KJ hands (you can take any hand you want here allthough the percentages will change slightly if you take a slightly different hand) wich are 4 hands in total, the KdJd being a semi bluff and all others total bluffs, then suddenly calling allready becomes profitable.

KJs - 4

Totaling 24 hands.

That means if villain is (semi) bluffing 17% of the time or more, we allready have enough equity to be making this call.

This way we can identify how "crazy" villain has to be to make this profitable.

As said, things will change slightly every time you add or subtract some hands but in general, in this example, with this pot size, a rough estimate that villain needs to be (semi) bluffing 17% of the time will stay the same.

And that general 17% you can use on any opponent you encounter.

dzikijohnny

I am a wimp...you are right it is a call Embarassed

sausage

As Nachtwacht said you should do the maths yourself, but I'm pretty sure this is a call against any villain.

golden

wow didn't realize everyone put so much thought into this, appreciate it!
know does everyone wanna know what he had ? lol

nachtwacht

Actualy... it's not realy intresting...

We should never think about villains as having just 1 single hand. They always have a range of hands.

Thinking about that... it is ofcourse intresting to know if his holding was indeed inside of the range we had in mind Smile

But lets assume he had some crazy bluff this time... then we still will not know anything about the frequency that he will have that. (and same goes for the absolute nuts)

So I am not so sure if we want to know... or not want to know Smile