Archive for Tagpoker Forum A friendly place for winning poker players to share their strategy to making money playing poker.
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The Angler
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Calling rangesMaybe this belongs more in the beginners questions, Vs a TAG high blinds 10bb effective stacks size, is KQo a call? The guy seems to be shoving slightly tighter than I would.
(I shove A2+,K2+ Q4s+,Q8o+,JTo+,J8s+,T9+ all pocket pairs vs TAGs)
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Simba
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Well, I'll encourage you to think for yourself a little. What pushing range do you put him on ?
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icemanv6
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I don't see how you can fold when you only have 10bb's if he's a good TAG. You can maybe flat, if you know he is the kind of player to barrel the F + T when checked too, if not just jam over pre-flop, especially if he is shoving or opening lots.
Personally if he is a TAG and doing the above it's obviously a call, even if he has A9, your still like 40% and you should be calling based on his shoving frequencies, if he's shoving lot's it's a call.
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nachtwacht
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The actual (rough) pushing range you put him on is the first part of the answer.
That you just simply put into PokerStove and voila, there you have your answer.
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U Cook Socks
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You don't need pokerstove to tell you, it's a very easy call.
However, it will benefit you to do it anyway.
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The Angler
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| icemanv6 wrote: | I don't see how you can fold when you only have 10bb's if he's a good TAG. You can maybe flat, if you know he is the kind of player to barrel the F + T when checked too, if not just jam over pre-flop, especially if he is shoving or opening lots.
Personally if he is a TAG and doing the above it's obviously a call, even if he has A9, your still like 40% and you should be calling based on his shoving frequencies, if he's shoving lot's it's a call. |
He shoved, there was no option to flat call and make any play post flop.
OK so I gave him 22+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,JTs,A2o+,K6o+,Q9o+,JTo in poker stove, probably a generous range and I'm 50.3% so a clear call at 10bb? I know it's technically a +EV call but hypothetically speaking if all your games played out this way you win 50.3% outright, lose 49.7% doubling him up and probably lose the majority of the time that happens so it seems to be only very slightly +EV. Giving villain a 35% shoving range yields an extra 2% equity, still seems pretty marginal though.
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nachtwacht
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| The Angler wrote: | | I know it's technically a +EV call |
No but.
The above is all you need to know.
Also, you appear to be forgetting the money in the middle. You think "50.3% is only a very marginal winner" but there is also money in the middle.
So it's a very +EV call if you would be 50.3% to win the hand.
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U Cook Socks
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| The Angler wrote: | | icemanv6 wrote: | I don't see how you can fold when you only have 10bb's if he's a good TAG. You can maybe flat, if you know he is the kind of player to barrel the F + T when checked too, if not just jam over pre-flop, especially if he is shoving or opening lots.
Personally if he is a TAG and doing the above it's obviously a call, even if he has A9, your still like 40% and you should be calling based on his shoving frequencies, if he's shoving lot's it's a call. |
He shoved, there was no option to flat call and make any play post flop.
OK so I gave him 22+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,JTs,A2o+,K6o+,Q9o+,JTo in poker stove, probably a generous range and I'm 50.3% so a clear call at 10bb? I know it's technically a +EV call but hypothetically speaking if all your games played out this way you win 50.3% outright, lose 49.7% doubling him up and probably lose the majority of the time that happens so it seems to be only very slightly +EV. Giving villain a 35% shoving range yields an extra 2% equity, still seems pretty marginal though. |
Nooo, not at all. Not if you stay focused, you are still a big fav to win, provided you don't tilt.
Plus what Natch said. It's a call, you can't wait for the nuts 10bb deep.
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Wannawin
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riskoriented guy always harps on about the correct calling range as a standard being 66% of opps shoving range.
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The Angler
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| Wannawin wrote: | | riskoriented guy always harps on about the correct calling range as a standard being 66% of opps shoving range. |
That's a very interesting point I'll have to look into it further.
I know I can't wait for the nuts to call, I'm more than happy to call with A2+ I'm just never comfortable calling with KQ I always do call because I have this idea in my head that "it's correct to call" maybe I've just lost with it too many times and am getting negative reinforcement. I did make the call during that match and had his K6o totally crushed, lost because I run so good right now I know being results orientated gives you the idea that the incorrect move is right (when it works) and vice versa and I try to be brutally honest with myself to stay away from the results orientated way of thinking. I just wanted to make sure that calling was the right play and not the wrong play that just got "lucky" by hitting the bottom of his range.
Thanks as always for all your replies .
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kierkegaard1
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you should be much happier to call off w/KQ compared to A2 fwiw
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U Cook Socks
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| The Angler wrote: | | Wannawin wrote: | | riskoriented guy always harps on about the correct calling range as a standard being 66% of opps shoving range. |
That's a very interesting point I'll have to look into it further.
I know I can't wait for the nuts to call, I'm more than happy to call with A2+ I'm just never comfortable calling with KQ I always do call because I have this idea in my head that "it's correct to call" maybe I've just lost with it too many times and am getting negative reinforcement. I did make the call during that match and had his K6o totally crushed, lost because I run so good right now I know being results orientated gives you the idea that the incorrect move is right (when it works) and vice versa and I try to be brutally honest with myself to stay away from the results orientated way of thinking. I just wanted to make sure that calling was the right play and not the wrong play that just got "lucky" by hitting the bottom of his range.
Thanks as always for all your replies . |
Kierk said it on the next page, and I would have too if he hadn't. KQ is a far better hand to call with than A2. It makes me cringe calling with A2 to be honest. Every pair has you smashed, and every ace has you smashed too. KQ plays good against the pocket pairs even up to JJ. The only hands that have KQ up sh*t street without a paddle are the premiums. AQ+ QQ+
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nachtwacht
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To put it into pokerstove terms, against a 50% shoving range you are:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.303% 42.75% 01.55% 5174012496 187826592.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 1: 55.697% 54.14% 01.55% 6552898992 187826592.00 { KQo }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.574% 47.96% 03.62% 5981672460 450892992.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 1: 48.426% 44.81% 03.62% 5588963892 450892992.00 { A2o }
that is 48.4% for the A2 and 55.7% for the KQ.
So you should be FAR MORE HAPPILY calling with KQ than with A2.
The only way you can be sure about calling ranges is if you do this kind of stuff yourself in Pokerstove and actualy UNDERSTAND what the results mean. That will change your thinking about A2 and KQ in these spots.
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The Angler
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Looks like I've got some work to do with pokerstove
Would you suggest using 50% as villains range?
I was thinking of running 50% and 30-35% to get a better idea of what hands to play against different ranges. Is it worth running hands against a more varied range, 6,10,20 and 60 for example?
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nachtwacht
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| The Angler wrote: | Looks like I've got some work to do with pokerstove
Would you suggest using 50% as villains range?
I was thinking of running 50% and 30-35% to get a better idea of what hands to play against different ranges. Is it worth running hands against a more varied range, 6,10,20 and 60 for example? |
As to villains range, use what you think is correct. Using "50%" will never be. If you select 50% in PokerStove, it will add hands where you think "thats strange".
So I suggest you start with what you say yourself "I think villain was a little tighter than what I would shove". You know your own range the best, use that as a guideline, then delete a bunch of hands and add a bunch of hands to see how that changes the calculations.
In time, the more you do it and the more you think about it, you will get better at assigning accurate ranges.
So using 6, 10, 20 etc. to see how hand value changes is indeed a good excersize. You will however not be able to ever tell exactly if your current villain is at 10% or something but it is very good to know how your hand will do against different ranges. It will give you a general feel if you should or should not call against a tightish or loosish player.
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blsmur
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how or why do people call with
KQ KJ etc
even against A2 you just 42% to 57.7%
i get get called by people with these hands but really dont understand it
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blsmur
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| kierkegaard1 wrote: | | you should be much happier to call off w/KQ compared to A2 fwiw |
how can you say that ?
obviously you don't look at pokerstove to make that statement
A2off beats KQ off 58% of the time
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nachtwacht
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| blsmur wrote: |
obviously you don't look at pokerstove to make that statement
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And obviously you don't read the rest of the thread where the answer to your question is allready given by Blazing Saddler. You are making a very obvious error.
This is what Blazing said:
KQ is a far better hand to call with than A2. It makes me cringe calling with A2 to be honest. Every pair has you smashed, and every ace has you smashed too. KQ plays good against the pocket pairs even up to JJ. The only hands that have KQ up sh*t street without a paddle are the premiums. AQ+ QQ+
So putting A2 in pokerstove against KQ is not what we are talking about here and is not intresting anywhat.
You have to put both in Pokerstove against some range you think villain might have.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.895% 50.66% 05.23% 4257558408 439842204.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 44.105% 38.87% 05.23% 3266745216 439842204.00 { A2o }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.551% 47.84% 01.71% 4079786688 145567512.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 50.449% 48.74% 01.71% 4156352208 145567512.00 { KQo }
Now you analyse that and tell us, wich is the better hand to be calling with ?
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U Cook Socks
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| blsmur wrote: | | kierkegaard1 wrote: | | you should be much happier to call off w/KQ compared to A2 fwiw |
how can you say that ?
obviously you don't look at pokerstove to make that statement
A2off beats KQ off 58% of the time |
Read Natch' post above.
Just to confirm, we are talking around the 10bb deep mark here, if you are folding KQ, you are making a big mistake in my opinion.
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welshdentist
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The money in the middle is the thing that I nearly understand.
if there is 200 in the middle, and we estimate the call to be -veEV.
Does it need to be more -ve in terms of BBs than what we would lose by folding to not call?
I think what I am wondering is how -ve EV would it need to be to fold, given the money in the middle?
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nachtwacht
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ok, I will bite....
Did a search on google what veEV would be... let alone -veEV... nothing found....
So please let me know what the ... bleep.... you are talking about
Then... and only then.... I might be able to explain to you if we should or should not call...
(basicaly that has to do with +EV or -EV and nothing more... and to me it sounds like you are overthinking a little... )
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welshdentist
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| nachtwacht wrote: | ok, I will bite....
Did a search on google what veEV would be... let alone -veEV... nothing found....
So please let me know what the ... bleep.... you are talking about
Then... and only then.... I might be able to explain to you if we should or should not call...
(basicaly that has to do with +EV or -EV and nothing more... and to me it sounds like you are overthinking a little... ) |
I think I seriously misworded/misunderstood a genuine question. Sorry about that....
From my very basic understanding I think I have explained myself poorly mixing up Ev and Equity. I really am not that savvy with the terms used on the forum/s.
I think what I am trying to get across poorly is that if at endgame we fold and lose say 1BB, are we more profitable to call if the average call in that situation works out at -0.5BB.
I am literally 4 months into online forums after playing (poorly) online for a year or so am not quite up to speed......
When you say o.k i'll bite, is it the term I have used, -ve means negative +ve means positive in my words. Dental terminology...sorry.....
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blsmur
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| nachtwacht wrote: | | blsmur wrote: |
obviously you don't look at pokerstove to make that statement
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And obviously you don't read the rest of the thread where the answer to your question is allready given by Blazing Saddler. You are making a very obvious error.
This is what Blazing said:
KQ is a far better hand to call with than A2. It makes me cringe calling with A2 to be honest. Every pair has you smashed, and every ace has you smashed too. KQ plays good against the pocket pairs even up to JJ. The only hands that have KQ up sh*t street without a paddle are the premiums. AQ+ QQ+
So putting A2 in pokerstove against KQ is not what we are talking about here and is not intresting anywhat.
You have to put both in Pokerstove against some range you think villain might have.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.895% 50.66% 05.23% 4257558408 439842204.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 44.105% 38.87% 05.23% 3266745216 439842204.00 { A2o }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.551% 47.84% 01.71% 4079786688 145567512.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 50.449% 48.74% 01.71% 4156352208 145567512.00 { KQo }
Now you analyse that and tell us, wich is the better hand to be calling with ? |
Wow
thats a wide range 50%
with just 10 bb are you advocating Pushing or calling with this range
at 10 bb for me I am way tighter
but my experience is in 9 man sng not these HU games I am playing now
also does this apply to the deep stack husng or the turbo
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nachtwacht
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| blsmur wrote: |
Wow
thats a wide range 50%
with just 10 bb are you advocating Pushing or calling with this range
at 10 bb for me I am way tighter
but my experience is in 9 man sng not these HU games I am playing now
also does this apply to the deep stack husng or the turbo |
This range was taken for the purpose of showing that KQ does better against that range than does A2. Thats the only thing I tried to make clear.
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U Cook Socks
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| blsmur wrote: | | nachtwacht wrote: | | blsmur wrote: |
obviously you don't look at pokerstove to make that statement
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And obviously you don't read the rest of the thread where the answer to your question is allready given by Blazing Saddler. You are making a very obvious error.
This is what Blazing said:
KQ is a far better hand to call with than A2. It makes me cringe calling with A2 to be honest. Every pair has you smashed, and every ace has you smashed too. KQ plays good against the pocket pairs even up to JJ. The only hands that have KQ up sh*t street without a paddle are the premiums. AQ+ QQ+
So putting A2 in pokerstove against KQ is not what we are talking about here and is not intresting anywhat.
You have to put both in Pokerstove against some range you think villain might have.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.895% 50.66% 05.23% 4257558408 439842204.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 44.105% 38.87% 05.23% 3266745216 439842204.00 { A2o }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.551% 47.84% 01.71% 4079786688 145567512.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 50.449% 48.74% 01.71% 4156352208 145567512.00 { KQo }
Now you analyse that and tell us, wich is the better hand to be calling with ? |
Wow
thats a wide range 50%
with just 10 bb are you advocating Pushing or calling with this range
at 10 bb for me I am way tighter
but my experience is in 9 man sng not these HU games I am playing now
also does this apply to the deep stack husng or the turbo |
Doesn't make to much difference whether it is turbo, deepstack, or regs, 10bb deep, is 10 bb deep.
Natch was just making an example of how KQ plays v that range compared to A2. For more information on the subject, there is a nice thread by Red_Dog in the Heads Up Strategy section, it is stickied at the top, so you can't miss it.
You should really spend some time, at least getting a handle on this stuff, it will help you no end.
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nachtwacht
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| welshdentist wrote: | | I think what I am trying to get across poorly is that if at endgame we fold and lose say 1BB, are we more profitable to call if the average call in that situation works out at -0.5BB. |
You are correct.
| welshdentist wrote: | | When you say o.k i'll bite, is it the term I have used, -ve means negative +ve means positive in my words. Dental terminology...sorry..... |
I am very glad you are not my dentist... if he would do the left part of my jaw two times, saying that would equal the right side, where my pain is, I would seriously do him something
Keep hanging around here, don't be afraid to ask questions that you might think are "stupid" questions. That will get you up to speed in notime
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blsmur
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| Blazing_Saddler wrote: | | blsmur wrote: | | nachtwacht wrote: | | blsmur wrote: |
obviously you don't look at pokerstove to make that statement
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And obviously you don't read the rest of the thread where the answer to your question is allready given by Blazing Saddler. You are making a very obvious error.
This is what Blazing said:
KQ is a far better hand to call with than A2. It makes me cringe calling with A2 to be honest. Every pair has you smashed, and every ace has you smashed too. KQ plays good against the pocket pairs even up to JJ. The only hands that have KQ up sh*t street without a paddle are the premiums. AQ+ QQ+
So putting A2 in pokerstove against KQ is not what we are talking about here and is not intresting anywhat.
You have to put both in Pokerstove against some range you think villain might have.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.895% 50.66% 05.23% 4257558408 439842204.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 44.105% 38.87% 05.23% 3266745216 439842204.00 { A2o }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.551% 47.84% 01.71% 4079786688 145567512.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 50.449% 48.74% 01.71% 4156352208 145567512.00 { KQo }
Now you analyse that and tell us, wich is the better hand to be calling with ? |
Wow
thats a wide range 50%
with just 10 bb are you advocating Pushing or calling with this range
at 10 bb for me I am way tighter
but my experience is in 9 man sng not these HU games I am playing now
also does this apply to the deep stack husng or the turbo |
Doesn't make to much difference whether it is turbo, deepstack, or regs, 10bb deep, is 10 bb deep.
Natch was just making an example of how KQ plays v that range compared to A2. For more information on the subject, there is a nice thread by Red_Dog in the Heads Up Strategy section, it is stickied at the top, so you can't miss it.
You should really spend some time, at least getting a handle on this stuff, it will help you no end. |
well being new to this
HU community I am asking Questions
Now while your statement about KQ may play better than A2 in the situation of someone shoving /calling 50% of his hands
I honestly think it is unlikely that anyone at 10bb or above is playing 50% of their hands all in
there is absolutely no need
and therefore your hand ranges are so wrong
maybe at 5bb we might be playing 50%
so I think your response to KQ is purely academic and not related to actual play
FWIW
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U Cook Socks
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Well change the range then, and run it again.
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nachtwacht
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| blsmur wrote: |
well being new to this
HU community I am asking Questions |
Actualy, in your first 2 comments in this thread, you where not. You commented that the people responding must not have been using pokerstove else they would not come up with the "yes KQ is a call" answer.
I did not like your commenting that way because to start with, your answer showed you did not read the thread, and second, you did not use pokerstove (correctly) yourself and third.... it just sounds ... and unfortunatly I can not find the English word for it but you can probably come up with that yourself.
So that is why my answer was short. You can find your answers for yourself easily and I try to make a habbit of not responding to long if answers can be found easily
So now I and others are saying the same to you. Use pokerstove, change the ranges yourself and proof me academicaly what is wrong with my statement.
If you do that, it will direct you to a very important error you are making. I will give you a little hint:
| blsmur wrote: |
I honestly think........
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Thinking is wrong. You have to know academicaly is you call it. I and others can tell you 100 times what something should be, but if you do not do your homework, come up with and do the calculations yourself, you will honestly keep thinking something.... wich might very well be very incorrect. Ofcourse there are things you can make some "guesses" about, but things where you can find a 100% correct answer, you should KNOW the answer.
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blsmur
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ok
I concede to your Superior knowledge in this matter
i was guilty of no reading the first few pages of this thread and took Kiegaarde comment on face value where he states he would prefer to call with KQ vs A2
and that is clearly wrong
but against the range that grinder posts in the very first part of this thread KQ is good
So sorry for making a comment out of context guys
hope you all feel better now
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nachtwacht
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Glad to see you did not forget the thread blsmur. I am going to add to the answer. With pokerstove after all we can proof if something is correct or not. Us here saying "this is right or wrong" and not saying why, just does not serve a lot of purpose (other than having people solve problems themself)
So lets give the correct answer to the "A2 / KQ problem we discussed above"
I allready showed that KQ is doing a lot better than A2 when villain has a 50% shoving range. Here for some other shoving ranges:
20%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.149% 48.56% 02.59% 2294804136 122499462.00 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 48.851% 46.26% 02.59% 2186155980 122499462.00 { KQo }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.320% 55.96% 02.36% 2782439772 117554790.00 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 41.680% 39.32% 02.36% 1954981464 117554790.00 { A2o }
Hmm.... so with a 20% shoving range, KQ is close to 49% and A2 is close to 42% Intresting... KQ does better here.... and not just a little bit....
30%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.298% 46.32% 01.98% 3321788904 141719868.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 51.702% 49.73% 01.98% 3565900512 141719868.00 { KQo }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.547% 52.27% 03.28% 3866401860 242529942.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 44.453% 41.17% 03.28% 3045691536 242529942.00 { A2o }
KQ has almost 50% and A2 only has 44.5% Again, KQ is a clear winner....
Should we still try 40% ? I would say no, we don't since we allready know what the answer is going to be..... KQ does better than A2. It's just the way it is....
So how is that possible ? After all, blsmur was thinking A2 should be better because in isolation, it is. Well, I allready explained it has to do with villains range, but the reasons why KQ is better than A2 is because with KQ you have 2 high cards that play against a lot of hands that villain has in his range and with A2 basicaly you are playing a one card hand, the ace (If he has an unpaired hand JJ or lower, you can hit 2 cards instead of one). A2 also has a lot of domination issues. People tend to shove with a lot of hands that contain an ace. With your 2 kicker, you don't stand a chance against any ace.
So thats why KQ is better than A2.
So KQ is not only better against the range the grinder posted, it is better against any range.
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blsmur
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well clearly I have been under valuing KQ
possibly against 20% range
KQo 51%
KJo 49%
KTo 46%
A2o 44%
A9o 51%
I needed A9o to match KOo
So I am in a dilemma now As i have been playing A2 in preference to KQ
be cause when i was doing my pokerstoving research I was putting non paired hands against A2
and A2 was winning way more than any other non paired hand
but when you put it as a range it changes the results
so if we take out the pairs because it most likely they don't have a pair (odds of being dealt a pp is 16 to 1)
then we do improve quite a bit the fact that we have an ace means there are only 3 left so it is less likely they have a bigger ace ,but certainly possible
so if we hold an Ace then the odds of them holding an ace is reduced to 3 in 51 so about 6%
so my Ace theory is looking better
eg
A2 vs 27% of hands with aces and pairs removed their range is now
KQ to K4 QJ to Q6 , JT to J8, T8 T9 T7s J5s + Q5s+ K3s+
A2o wins 56%
and KQo 68 %
KJo 65%
K9o 59%
K8o 56%
So my research appears to have been incomplete and I guess now I am playing KQ where i might have played A2 in the past
and
I can add in the other hands I have listed above as well
for
+ev hands
A2o vs KQo
A2 57%
KQ 42%
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The Angler
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Here's something you may find interesting.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.986% 47.67% 00.31% 78367080 513624.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 52.014% 51.70% 00.31% 84986856 513624.00 { 22 }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.184% 51.47% 00.72% 84601920 1179198.00 { JTs, JTo }
Hand 1: 47.816% 47.10% 00.72% 77420868 1179198.00 { 22 }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.308% 37.08% 00.23% 162539812 998058.00 { JTs, JTo }
Hand 1: 62.692% 62.46% 00.23% 273813896 998058.00 { AKs, AKo }
so 22 beats AK, JT beats 22 BUT AK beats JT
When you put these against a 20% range however the result is slightly different.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.706% 43.27% 00.43% 1178127954 11796480.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 56.294% 55.86% 00.43% 1520842446 11796480.00 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.076% 34.10% 01.97% 2131887924 123463883.00 { JTs, JTo }
Hand 1: 63.924% 61.95% 01.97% 3872806214 123463883.00 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.535% 59.71% 02.83% 3549676304 168105604.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 37.465% 34.64% 02.83% 2059231976 168105604.00 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
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BetMagicMoney
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| The Angler wrote: | Here's something you may find interesting.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.986% 47.67% 00.31% 78367080 513624.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 52.014% 51.70% 00.31% 84986856 513624.00 { 22 }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.184% 51.47% 00.72% 84601920 1179198.00 { JTs, JTo }
Hand 1: 47.816% 47.10% 00.72% 77420868 1179198.00 { 22 }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.308% 37.08% 00.23% 162539812 998058.00 { JTs, JTo }
Hand 1: 62.692% 62.46% 00.23% 273813896 998058.00 { AKs, AKo }
so 22 beats AK, JT beats 22 BUT AK beats JT |
yer i work this out i face palmed its pretty funny how the math works out on this
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nachtwacht
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| blsmur wrote: | well clearly I have been under valuing KQ
so if we take out the pairs because it most likely they don't have a pair (odds of being dealt a pp is 16 to 1)
then we do improve quite a bit the fact that we have an ace means there are only 3 left so it is less likely they have a bigger ace ,but certainly possible |
1) Yes, to us it was clear you were undervaluing your KQ
2) Pokerstove allready accounts for pairs being less likely. Pokerstove uses all hands in the calculation, and they are all weighted according to how often they can be dealth.
3) same goes for your "we have an ace so he is less likely to have one". Pokerstove accounts for that when you make calculations against ranges.
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ottocat01
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| nachtwacht wrote: | Glad to see you did not forget the thread blsmur. I am going to add to the answer. With pokerstove after all we can proof if something is correct or not. Us here saying "this is right or wrong" and not saying why, just does not serve a lot of purpose (other than having people solve problems themself)
So lets give the correct answer to the "A2 / KQ problem we discussed above"
I allready showed that KQ is doing a lot better than A2 when villain has a 50% shoving range. Here for some other shoving ranges:
20%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.149% 48.56% 02.59% 2294804136 122499462.00 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 48.851% 46.26% 02.59% 2186155980 122499462.00 { KQo }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.320% 55.96% 02.36% 2782439772 117554790.00 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 41.680% 39.32% 02.36% 1954981464 117554790.00 { A2o }
Hmm.... so with a 20% shoving range, KQ is close to 49% and A2 is close to 42% Intresting... KQ does better here.... and not just a little bit....
30%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.298% 46.32% 01.98% 3321788904 141719868.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 51.702% 49.73% 01.98% 3565900512 141719868.00 { KQo }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.547% 52.27% 03.28% 3866401860 242529942.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 44.453% 41.17% 03.28% 3045691536 242529942.00 { A2o }
KQ has almost 50% and A2 only has 44.5% Again, KQ is a clear winner....
Should we still try 40% ? I would say no, we don't since we allready know what the answer is going to be..... KQ does better than A2. It's just the way it is....
So how is that possible ? After all, blsmur was thinking A2 should be better because in isolation, it is. Well, I allready explained it has to do with villains range, but the reasons why KQ is better than A2 is because with KQ you have 2 high cards that play against a lot of hands that villain has in his range and with A2 basicaly you are playing a one card hand, the ace (If he has an unpaired hand JJ or lower, you can hit 2 cards instead of one). A2 also has a lot of domination issues. People tend to shove with a lot of hands that contain an ace. With your 2 kicker, you don't stand a chance against any ace.
So thats why KQ is better than A2.
So KQ is not only better against the range the grinder posted, it is better against any range. |
Nice
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rekop
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3 reasons to call the shove; 1 to foldHi guys,
Just to add my thoughts on the subect(s)! While everything the experienced members said is coorect for the most part (shoving KQ against almost any of the villian's range (unless he only shoves with a range of one, AA lol) I feel some newer players are probably still quite confused.
BtW I never heard about Pokerstove before now so thats great to know and I have a bit of time tomorrow so I will check it out!
So anyway, the terms EV and equity are importnt to understand.
EQUITY (as I undertnad it!) is the percentage you have to win the hand - this is what you see in the TV poker games eg AK vs 66 is 52% to 48% or whatever. Pokerstove is doing the same thing, although it pits your exact 2 cards against every single combination you think the villian has. So you are beating some (hopefully most) of his potential hands but you are also loosing to some as well.
it then adds them all together and tells you the average percentage your hand has to win or lose (over 50% good, under 50% bad!)
EXPECTED VALUE (EV), so called because it is what you "expect" to win or lose if you could somehow run the same hand situation an infinite amount of times. The best decisions in poker are the ones that give you the highest EV. Unlike equity, sometimes -EV is in fact the best decision eg folding your 7 2o to an All In and loosing your blind, rather than pumping in more and creating even more -EV.
Going back to the initial post though, and looking at this situation where the equity for the KQ was only slightly above 50% there are as I see it three reasons to call the shove.
1) As stated above, it's positive equity so you have more chance to win.
2) As Nacht pointed out early on, there is dead money in the pot.
3) The bluff factor - from time to time he will be shoving with shit!
The last point simply means that the villian's range will include, on average, a percentage of bluffs (which by definition are worse than the range you assigned him). Therefore in a coin flip situation you are actually ahead!
Point 2 is a little bit more complicated to grasp when you are new to poker but it is very important nonetheless.
Your equity in the shodown is only the Yin or the equation, the Yang is to do with pot odds. However they have to been taken in their totality - the Yin Yang here being the EV.
So let's imagine the KQ shove is a perfect 50% coin flip. If you and the villian wagered exactly $100 dollars each your EV would be 0!! That's right, you would not win or lose anything in the long run.
But imagine the blinds are 5/10. You call and the villian shoves 100. You call. Now 50% of the time you lose and so lose $100. But 50% of the time you win and win $100 + $20 (blinds) = $120. That's +EV right there.
The lower your equity, the higher you need the pot odds to be to compensate.
Or put another way,(far-fetched example here perhaps lol) imagine you 3bet the villian thinking he is so tight he will fold but he 4bets you all in. The pot is $160 but it only costs you $20 to call. Damn, you know he has AA. You look down at your 2 7o. But you call. Why?
Because while most of the time you will lose the $20, the times you do win, you get $160 which is more than all the combined times you lose the $20s
So here's an example putting it all togeher:
The pot is $100 and the villian shoves $400. You calculate that your equity is 45% to win at showdown.
Ignorning a split pot, you will lose 55 times out of 100 at $400 a pop.
That's 55x400 = 22,000.
You win 45 times out of 100.
That's 45x500 (villians all in plus blinds) = 22,500..
So your EV to call is $500 over 100 similar hands or $5 on that hand.
Hope that helps, as I said this is aimed at beginners who may be reading this thread and wondering what the hell is going on!
Lastly however I want to give a reason why you might fold KQ against a shove!!
So your equity is 50% or therabouts (factoring in a bluff factor but maybe imagining he is a little tighter - but overall your guestimate is a coin flip.)
Yes you have +EV (10BB to win 12BB)
But you are completly crushing him, and this is a $100 HUSNG. and oh yes, you are not bankrolled to really play at this level (you are a $10 level) but you are giving it a stab.
Question: Do you really want to coin flip when you can have death by a 1000 cuts? What happens if he wins the flip...maybe you will be so short staked that natural varience in the cards could make it very difficult to win.
Remember that in SNGs you need to win a high percentage of the fish that occupy the bottom 10 percent ability range of your level to compensate for those at your level who are better than you.
And conversely there could be an argument to make to call with a shove with -EV if you are a complete fish. If I were playing Broker and suck out on him twice!! and so he's down to 100BB. He shoves. well maybe I'm calling with my 9 7o - probably wont be dominated and it's probably the only way I can beat him!!
So my point here is that a SNG is not the same as a cash game where the +EV is supreme (unless it's an enormous pot relative to the blinds and then you'd probably run it three times!)
Well food for thought anyway I hope!!
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rekop
|
[quote="The Angler:24429"]Here's something you may find interesting.
so 22 beats AK, JT beats 22 BUT AK beats JT
Cool! Looks like one of those never-ending circular paradoxes lol
Persumably it all hinhes on the fact that the JT vs 22 has extra straight potential, which it doesn't against the AK.
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blsmur
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just for the books
i still find I am shoving A2
but i was never calling with it anyway well not at 10bb
but certainly at 5 bb
i haven't had to try KQ yet but i will if the situation comes up
the trouble with shoving at all is, its just a gamble
and that is not good if we don't have to
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nachtwacht
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| blsmur wrote: |
the trouble with shoving at all is, its just a gamble
|
Actualy, it's not. And if you play poker correctly, nothing should be a gamble.
Shoving wide relies on fold equity. I comfortably shove 72o at 10BB if I know that villain is going to fold 95% of his hands. It is highly profitable.
Sure, when called, we know we are behind, but we made up for that by villain folding 19 out of 20 times.
So it has nothing to do with gambling. It has to do with knowing a lot about fold equity etc.
Red_dog has written some cool articles about it also. Worth searching for it here on the forum. It's stickied somewhere....
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blsmur
|
| nachtwacht wrote: | | blsmur wrote: |
the trouble with shoving at all is, its just a gamble
|
Actualy, it's not. And if you play poker correctly, nothing should be a gamble.
Shoving wide relies on fold equity. I comfortably shove 72o at 10BB if I know that villain is going to fold 95% of his hands. It is highly profitable.
Sure, when called, we know we are behind, but we made up for that by villain folding 19 out of 20 times.
So it has nothing to do with gambling. It has to do with knowing a lot about fold equity etc.
Red_dog has written some cool articles about it also. Worth searching for it here on the forum. It's stickied somewhere.... |
if the villain has folded 19 bb why are we at 10bb and shoving 72off
we should have 20bb after he folds 19 times
my experience is they wont fold that often
and when i shove too loose i get called and then is a gamble
you are coming across as the expert of all time ,can you verify it?
are you really?
i dont know whether what your saying is just ego or knowledge
please post your winnings graph or your screen name where you play
Thanks
are you a coach on here
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BetMagicMoney
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| blsmur wrote: | | nachtwacht wrote: | | blsmur wrote: |
the trouble with shoving at all is, its just a gamble
|
Actualy, it's not. And if you play poker correctly, nothing should be a gamble.
Shoving wide relies on fold equity. I comfortably shove 72o at 10BB if I know that villain is going to fold 95% of his hands. It is highly profitable.
Sure, when called, we know we are behind, but we made up for that by villain folding 19 out of 20 times.
So it has nothing to do with gambling. It has to do with knowing a lot about fold equity etc.
Red_dog has written some cool articles about it also. Worth searching for it here on the forum. It's stickied somewhere.... |
if the villain has folded 19 bb why are we at 10bb and shoving 72off
we should have 20bb after he folds 19 times
my experience is they wont fold that often
and when i shove too loose i get called and then is a gamble
you are coming across as the expert of all time ,can you verify it?
are you really?
i dont know whether what your saying is just ego or knowledge
please post your winnings graph or your screen name where you play
Thanks
are you a coach on here |
he's right, the point of what he ses is that villian is folding 95% of the time, and even when he calls we still might win and really he's going to fold so much its super profitable
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Wannawin
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| blsmur wrote: |
you are coming across as the expert of all time ,can you verify it?
are you really?
i dont know whether what your saying is just ego or knowledge
please post your winnings graph or your screen name where you play
Thanks
are you a coach on here |
A kind word:
From some one who has spent a lot of time and effort writing very long and well thought out (and backed up with maths posts), since way before I started on this forum - AND has gained a lot of respect from a lot of regulars here, as well as still sorting out tournaments etc for this forum.
comments like this, from you, will not get nachtwacht biting, but will get a lot of others biting.
Read previous post, from a lot of threads (some of them are backed up by maths) and put time and effort into answering your own questions...
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nachtwacht
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| blsmur wrote: |
if the villain has folded 19 bb why are we at 10bb and shoving 72off
we should have 20bb after he folds 19 times |
I was giving a hypothetical example as to why shoving should not be gambling and why there could be reasons to shove the worst possible hand into some type of villain.
| blsmur wrote: | my experience is they wont fold that often
and when i shove too loose i get called and then is a gamble |
My experience is also that in HUSNG's they don't fold that often. That is however not the point. It was a hypothetical example as to why shoving wide can be correct. Definatly not a statement that it always is correct.
And when you shove to loose, you are not gambling, you just made an error. You should not have shoved too loose. Thats not gambling, thats just an error in your game.
| blsmur wrote: | | you are coming across as the expert of all time ,can you verify it? |
Whats there to verify ? It's a simple statement.
If someone is folding 19 out of 20 times it is correct to shove 72o.
If you are not able to verify that yourself by just stepping through the simple calculations I made then poker is not for you. That is, the mathematical side of poker isn't. You might do great because at your age you have a very good grasp at people and know what they are doing.
| blsmur wrote: | | are you really? |
Am I realy correct in the shoving 72o statement ?
Yep, I am.
| blsmur wrote: | | i dont know whether what your saying is just ego or knowledge |
Knowledge. Do the calculations and you will from then on know for yourself.
| blsmur wrote: | | please post your winnings graph or your screen name where you play |
What do either have to do with the simple calculations that you can verify ? Me showing a hughely profitable or unprofitable graph won't make any difference to the statements and calculations being correct.
| blsmur wrote: |
are you a coach on here |
Why ? You want me as your coach ? Sorry, I don't think you and me would go together well so not having any openings.
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blsmur
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look hes been on my case from the start
so i am asking him to verify
as for shoving to lose ?
i said shoving too loose a whole different thing
who on earth does that
well i really dont understand this forum
Dom tells me you all nice people
all i seem to get is agro responses to most of my posts
my very first post i made on here i got told off
so unless you can back up your statements with your graph of winning
dont bother me again
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Wannawin
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fine. mine was a fairly friendly point, because someone is spending HIS FREE TIME to try help you understand your questions, based on concepts a lot of us here understand, because we have put the time and effort into understanding them
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nachtwacht
|
As for the to and too, I am not a native english speaker so every thinking person will know that I am making a typing error there. Terrible ofcourse. I will go hide in shame.
As to my response, atleast I base my responses on actual calculations and not just my thoughts. Easy to very calculations, so you seriously do not need my graph or anything.
For the oldest guy on the forum you sure act like the youngest. Goodluck to you sir.
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BetMagicMoney
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| rekop wrote: | | The Angler wrote: | Here's something you may find interesting.
so 22 beats AK, JT beats 22 BUT AK beats JT |
Cool! Looks like one of those never-ending circular paradoxes lol
Persumably it all hinhes on the fact that the JT vs 22 has extra straight potential, which it doesn't against the AK. |
also because we have two of the cards needed for the A to get the wrap (aka A2345) with us holding 22 we take away 2 of his out again increasing our equity
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BetMagicMoney
|
Ok im modding this!!!
First of blsmur, nachtwacht is giving his own time up to explain somthing, regardless of if you think he's right or not you should at least give him the curtacy of being right!
Second, alot of respected players - blazing, kierk etc - have all commented say the same as nacht, this should tell you that he's correct and is talking sence.
Third, you can't ever demand somones graph as proof of if there telling you something right, just looked at the overwelming responce from other people saying he's right, you don't need his graph.
As far as i can work out alot of the problem here stems from the fact that you don't like the situations natch is giving you (shoving 72, 50% shoving ranges etc) these situation are give as guide lines to show you how the math works, he is though out this entire thread give youthe answer + the tools for you to work out other situations that are similear.
For what its worth, personally nacht is the strongest player (minus maybe sausage) when it comes to poker Math and game thoery, he constently helping out new players and guiding use older ones.
Now i'd like the flaming and demands to stop! This thread is allowed to continue only if everyone gets along and post about the situation at hand!
This doesn't mean you can't ask questions, im sure that if somone comes along and ses i don't get it because of xyz then nacht will explain it for them, however if he continues to get abuse from anyone he won't!
So this is a genral warning to everyone if somone steps out of line again i'll lock the thread, end of story.
Im not hating on anyone, i just want the fourm to function, this will only happen however if everyone gets along and coparates.
<3 the fourm
BMM
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blsmur
|
fine well stick it
then
my problem comes from the attitude
not the advice
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BetMagicMoney
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| blsmur wrote: | fine well stick it
then
my problem comes from the attitude
not the advice |
Mate i have gone back and read the entire thread, as far as i can see there wasn't any attitude aimed at you or anyone else, im sure more than anything that no one would do that to you one purpose.
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blsmur
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good i took it all wrong
silly me
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U Cook Socks
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| blsmur wrote: | fine well stick it
then
my problem comes from the attitude
not the advice |
Why do you want to see a winning graph from Natch ? I can post you two winning graphs, over about 4000 games, at around 15% , but I can honestly tell you, I listen to every word Natch says, cos I think he has far more knowledge than I have about poker.
You have to bear this in mind, Natch isn't English, he does very well at posting in English, but it is sometimes difficult for him to find the words to explain some things, which may make them come over as being arrogant, disrespectful, or anything else. I can assure you he is a real nice man, and if you have any questions, he would be happy to help you out.
Just take a step back, chill out a bit, and realise that not everyone is going to have the same opinion on things. The only way to learn is to listen.
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blsmur
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i dont want to see any thing
it over lets drop it
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