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blsmur

Banks roll Maths I dont know if this is in the right spot

Hi there

I am about to describe something some of you will know but probably never thought about it  much


so first I have a Question for you


if i offered you  $10k in cash today  

or  1 cent  that would keep doubling for a month
which would you accept


 ok so on the one hand you have $10,000 to spend right away

on the other you have 1 cent but tomorrow you will have 2 cents and the next day 4 cents

and so on for 31 days


so which are you choosing ?






well it is easy $10K right ?


WRONG !!!!!!!!!!!

by turning down the 1 cent you are losing 10 million dollars


so if you  dont believe me do the maths  


by the end of 10 days you will have $5.12


by the end of 20 days you will have $5242.88

by the end of 31 days you will have $10,737,412



ok
so what has this got to do with BR building
well if we work at completing  our bank roll challenges  
we should be considering how to proceed

I have read some amazing stuff on this website  but what if we always play to our bankroll
eg
3% so if we have 100 dollars in our BR we can play $3 games
if we get to $200 we can play $6 games

and so on  
but if we really want to grow
at $140 we could be playing $4 games
and at $165 we could be playing $5 games etc


so every time we grow our br
we grow our stake in the games we play

now if we keep applying this principle we will be  making some bigger games  sooner

i realize there is a spot where we cant find games but that is about $10,000 buyin  
but there is always live play
so we will always be at our level of play if we keep to the 3% of our Br
and we will be able to grow at our maximum rate without taking shots  at higher levels
by the time we have progressed through our stake ranges we should be looking at a million or so in the bank roll

well i came across this concept in the past but it was brought up in a pdf  someone sent me  so I will be applying this concept to my bankroll building
Just thought i would share it

Good Luck !
U Cook Socks

That's all well and good, providing you can beat the games at all stakes. What would actually happen is you would just end up dropping back to a stake you can actually beat, if you can beat one at all.

Plus the mental strains of going up and down.

I'd just concentrate on getting better if I were you.
ChrisB

Great thread. Learned a lot.
YATHINNK

You seem to love the enter key. Other than that I don't know what you're trying to say?
U Cook Socks

YATHINNK wrote:
You seem to love the enter key. Other than that I don't know what you're trying to say?


Laughing
doodiewiz

Lol! Doesn't really make sense in my opinion. You're talking about exponentials, but with your new bankroll structure you're just pretty much following the same plan anyway as a normal bankroll build - eg moving up when you have 25 buyins for the next stake level. You're just increasing the variance by gambling with a larger portion of your money. Am I missing something? I think it would be more interesting if you just had 2 buyins for each level and keep moving up when you double up and drop down one if you lose a buy in as a fun experiment.

Saw a doc on casinos recently and apparently with roulette where you only have two options red/black(excuse my ignorance if I'm wrong never been to a casino) the only way to win is to keep gambling and playing double or nothing. Unfortunately casinos know this and have capped it at 3 times..
YATHINNK

With roulette doesn't the inclusion of a green 0 and a double 0 mean that, even if you did play double or nothing, you would end up out of pocket? I know this topic has nothing to do with roulette but I don't know much of the mechanics for gambling games other than the pokerz
doodiewiz

Yeah could be right! I can't remember the exact game thought it was roulette. I know very often they give you odds that are just slightly in their favour. Long term result - they win lots of money! Was a louis Theroux doc I think about gambling addicts - was good!
YATHINNK

<3 Louis Theroux
U Cook Socks

YATHINNK wrote:
With roulette doesn't the inclusion of a green 0 and a double 0 mean that, even if you did play double or nothing, you would end up out of pocket? I know this topic has nothing to do with roulette but I don't know much of the mechanics for gambling games other than the pokerz


Yep, it is impossible to beat a roullete wheel. Well you can beat it if you gamble, win and never play again, but you can't have a long term winning expectation, because basically the odds are against you whatever bet you put on.
U Cook Socks

My point in my original post on this thread wasn't meant to be rude, but worrying about experimenting with different bankroll management structures and so on is pretty pointless unless you can realistically beat games higher up the ladder. If you are struggling with micro stakes games, then you have bigger things to work on than this.
YATHINNK

I mean it is possible to like risk a lot of your roll if you can reload and try and force your way up the stakes. But like Blazing said, you gotta learn to beat them before you can comfortably move up skill wise.
U Cook Socks

YATHINNK wrote:
I mean it is possible to like risk a lot of your roll if you can reload and try and force your way up the stakes. But like Blazing said, you gotta learn to beat them before you can comfortably move up skill wise.


Yeah, you can risk as much as you want if you have the money. If you have millions in the bank, you can play 1k games. If you aren't better than the players you are playing though, don't expect to make any money, infact expect to lose some/alot.

Playing the micros, isn't just about building a bankroll to play higher stakes imo, it's like an apprenticeship, you are learning the trade as you go along (hopefully) Far to many people are in a rush to get to higher stakes games imo. Having a solid plan, and constantly working on all aspects of your game is far more rewarding, and will in most cases it will bear more fruit.
doodiewiz

Hey, heres the link to part one of louis Theroux: Gambling in Las Vegas if anyones interested:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UneYciGf84I
blsmur

Well  guys
i thought the process was interesting  

an  I am applying it to my forex trading

by only using 3% of my capital I am safe from variance and yet I am at my maximum growth

by extrapolating this out over about 30 months  you should have a million bucks

obviously if we cant get over the first level we wont ever get more

anyway I thought it was applicable to poker too
doodiewiz

I think it's interesting. I didnt do the maths, but with a 25 buy in BR you're risking 4% of your BR every game. 1/25*100 = 4%. So it's actually a more conservative strategy.
evprop

i thought it was interesting.... distracted me from my knitting for a while Smile
YATHINNK

evprop wrote:
i thought it was interesting.... distracted me from my knitting for a while Smile
Wp if this is a level. Made me choke on my water.
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