Variance and Mental Game

kierkegaard1 · Forum Veteran Joined: 10 Jan 2010 Posts: 1071

this is basically just a blog post on my feelings of facing negative variance and my thoughts on my own mental game during the last few months. It offers no strategy or anything, so feel free to "tl;dr" it if you're expecting some kind of strategy advice. i dont think anyone will really learn anything from it
but i figured some people may be interested in the journey i've been on over the last few months. It's been a rocky ride. (and not finished yet)

My journey through husng's has been a pretty quick one. i grinded out $2 games for about 5 days i think before i moved up to $5s. by the end of that month i was playing the $30s.
A few months later i was regging the $100s. i remember being afraid that the longtime $100 regs would pick me off, but the $100 regpool on ftp was the biggest nitfest online (me included)
Fast forward 12 months later and i'm a reg at the 500/300/200 euro and picking spots at the 1k's. The higher rake at PS.fr really is sickening and i definitely didn't respect it at all.
at the tail end of july i went on a downswing of somewhere between 8-11k euro. I was fortunate enough to have a 13k month right before this happened to retain a winning month and a 100%
winning month record since i went full time, but my spirits felt kind of crushed. This was definitely the biggest downswing (in terms of $) that i'd been on. I still felt positive and
reflected on my fortunate career and the money i'd already made this year and although the drop at the end of july was sizeable, i'd still managed a winning month.
I remember running fairly well at the beginning of august and made all (or nearly all) of the losses back that i dropped at the end of july. I cant remember a lot about august to be honest.
I didnt play a whole lot of volume. i was busy a lot of it but considering the volume i usually play, it was good to take a bit of time away.
I ran well enough to make a profit and felt really good about my game and my confidence. I attended hokiegreg's barcelona camp at the end of the month and played the 3k euro ept hu event
afterwards (no score)
September was a super weird month. i think i was up 7 or 8k and then went on a disasterous downswing (similar to the one at the tailend of july) to finish 3k- for the month or something.
This was my first losing month and my confidence kind of started waivering. It sucked for me that i'd dug myself out of a big monetary whole only to go straight back into it. It really
sucked. Anyway, i put the month behind me ready to grind hard in october. This was where my mental took a really drastic turn.
Basically including the end of september, and the start - mid october i had something between 13-15 losing days in a row. (there might have been 1 or 2 +200 days in there or something, but
nothing substantial) and my losses each day were sizeable. I'd never been on a run like it, and what hurt the most was seeing my ev line going down as well as my profit line. It's this
that cast so much doubt in my mind. Definitely at the start of most careers, any downswing makes you doubt yourself, but you grind out of it and re-establish confidence. I felt prior
to this that the doubt was behind me, but when you have that many losing days and consta-see your red line going in the wrong direction, too, it really does that a strong heart.
Fortunately, each day i woke up super confident. THIS would be the day where it'd turn around. Each day i got crushed. There were times where i felt i simply couldn't win anymore. It really
hurt. There were times i thought there was a real possibility i could lose all my money. At its worst, my downswing was somewhere around the 16-17k mark and i'd done all this in in the space
of a month or so. My volume definitely sucked during this time. I also dropped right the way down the stakes. From regging 500s and playing the odd 1k, i was playing 200e as my highest stake.
I was doing this for the wrong reasons (not because of bankroll) but i just couldnt take the pain of losing such large amounts. It was simply damage limitation.
If i'd wake up and go 1-5 or something, i'd probably quit to preserve further damage. Definitely backward thinking, but my
heart just couldnt take the pain. On the flip side, i pushed so hard for winning days. if i went 1k+, i'd keep pushing, so often i'd finish down for that day. It's impossible to put into
words the sinking feeling is after 10+ days. I'd also taken a couple of 3 day breaks in the middle of all of this. They were definitely good for my mental and confidence, but not for my poker.
And i'd just feel just as crushed as soon as i came back to the table and did my nuts in again. There was a point where the internet went down in my flat for around 10mins and cost me 800 euro
in buy-ins at around 3am. I was thrilled. It honestly felt that everything that could go wrong did go wrong. My poker confidence and mentality at this point was definitely at a nut low.

Fortunately, it didnt affect me in any way in the real world. After i'd slept or been away from the computer for a couple of hours, i felt fine. My girlfriend (whom i live with) didnt see
any change in my personality at all away from the tables. I think this is super important - this is how people f*ck up their lives. We still did the same stuff, we went away to europe for
some weekends away over the last couple of months, i still spent the same, i still acted the same. I realised that even though i'd lost a massive chunk of money, my life wasn't affected in
any way. i could do all the same sh*t i always did. But i can't put into words how much i wanted things to turn. by around the 18th-ish of october i was down around 6k for the month.

Then out of nowhere i pushed out a 2.5k+ day or something. i managed to string a few winning days together. My volume still wasn't great but i put that more down to the games drying up
rather than not wanting to grind. I moved back up the stakes, regging the 500s again and feeling really comfortable in them. I played some live cash a bit and fastforward to today i'm a touch over 1k+ for the month online. and around 1.5k+ in live cash. A nice heater over the last week.

I still have a way to go to push out of this perpetual downswing. I feel as though i haven't made a penny over the last few months. But i've had a good overall year. My spirits are really high
and i'm super motivated. My short term goal is to push to a new 'highest peak' by the end of the year ready for a fresh 2012.

The rake at high stakes husng's on ps.fr really is sick. it forces so much variance, and i hadn't respected it because of how good i was fortunate to run in the games after my initial deposit.
I deposited 1k in may and had over 10k in that account by the end of the month playing just 100/200s with the occasional 500 (there were no 300s) thrown in. I ran well and any glitch
couldnt be considered a downswing. I'd had a tonne of downswings on ftp but none lasted as long and werent so big in terms of $ that this one really hit me hard.
It's important to note that almost every poker pro has one thing in common - they ran really good at the start of their career. If i'd have run how i am doing this last few months, i'd
never have committed my life to it. the thought of trying to build a roll through this variance is a sickening thought. I was fortunate enough to have a decent sized roll big enough to
take the swings i've been and am going through. I think everybody underestimates variance because nobody truely understands it or how bad it can really get. And it could still get much, much
worse for me. Def a lot of respect for aggsy who's ran pretty terrible and just keeps plugging along. there's no doubt he has a sick poker mind, but probably doesnt get the respect he deserves
because of mixed results as a result of horrific variance. I've spent a lot of time and money on trying to improve my game over the last 12 months especially and am not experiencing variance even close to its worst, so it shows that
it can happen to anybody. PrimodialAA went on 100k downswing or something sick in January. Hokie ran 70k or so under ev last year. These highly skilled players run absurdly awful in patches
and it will happen to anybody who plays long enough. Nobody is invincible. It frustrates me when i see a single game being posted in BBV about a badbeat. That's not pain. those posting
those games have no idea what the pain is like during a chronic downswing in a game that is your livelihood. if they did, they wouldnt be posting about a badbeat.

I have bills and rent to pay. I have no job prospects. This is my life. Dropping absurd amounts of money over a couple of months is tough. There is so much pressure on me to make this work.
For if it doesn't work out for me, i've honestly no idea what i'd do.

That last paragraph makes it sound really depressing. But i'm honestly feeling so good about everything right now. I've strung some winning days together. I looks at my results as a whole
and without wanting to come off as bigheaded, i feel ive achieved SO much in such a short space of time. I've obviously ran well, but i've made my fortune from $48 less than 2 years ago.
I've been able to pay out large amounts for coaching sevices this year alone, been able to pay 7months rent+deposit on a 2 bed flat in london, do a bunch of travelling with my girlfriend,
have some money saved in the bank and a bankroll which enables me to play the stakes i wish to play. There's nothing i'd change about my life right now. I'm also really lucky to have really supportive friends and family around me. I've heard so many horror stories about parents making life hard for people playing cards. It'd have made it so many times harder to have not have their support, knowing they were waiting for that "i told you so moment"

I feel great but, god i just wanna get out of this f downswing!

(all values i speak about are approximate because of swings over various computers without hem and that haven't saved my results.) graph below is my lifetime stats on my desktop hem which doesnt show full downswing.

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U Cook Socks · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:28 pm Post subject:

Wow, did you dictate that someone to type it for you ? that's more words than you have spoken in your whole time on here isn't it Laughing

Pleased you dragged yourself out of it, and had the self belief to continue. I have a lot of respect for you as a poker player, and as a person. You deserve good things, for all your hard work

Good Luck in the future.
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n1ghtah · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 8:28 pm Post subject:

wow mate. Thats definitely not a too long dont read.

This is a MUST READ !!! sticky please for the most epic most inspiring post ive ever seen on this board. (and two plus two)

Know im rooting for my husng hero <3 (you) always here to talk and yes as blazing tells. You deserve good things for all your hard work. you are a beast mate. Show them Wink

i look forward to see you crushing as always Smile

I want to see you reg the 5ks sometime. Very Happy

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golden · Posted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:41 am Post subject:

great post. it really got me thinking since yesterday was my biggest losing day.

Why are you playing on Fr. if the rake is higher? more fish?

kierkegaard1 · Forum Veteran Joined: 10 Jan 2010 Posts: 1071

hands like this in 500s

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, €500.00 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (2 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t1905)
Hero (SB) (t1095)

Hero's M: 24.33

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9

, 7

Hero bets t60, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t60

Flop: (t240) 5

, 7

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t150, BB calls t150

Turn: (t540) 5

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t270, BB raises to t1635 (All-In), Hero calls t555 (All-In)

River: (t2190) J

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t2190

Results:
Hero had 9

, 7

(full house, sevens over fives).
BB had 10

, A

(two pair, sevens and fives).
Outcome: Hero won t2190

and this

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, €500.00 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (2 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t810)
Hero (BB) (t2190)

Hero's M: 48.67

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10

, 10

SB bets t90, Hero raises to t240, SB calls t150

Flop: (t480) 2

, 2

(2 players)
Hero bets t120, SB calls t120

Turn: (t720) 7

(2 players)
Hero bets t180, SB calls t180

River: (t1080) 9

(2 players)
Hero bets t810, 1 fold

Total pot: t1080

Results:
Hero didn't show 10

, 10

(nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t1080

kind of make it worth it
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forced · Posted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 4:52 am Post subject:

very nice read...

good luck kierk.
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Brokerstar · Posted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 8:03 am Post subject:

I really enjoyed reading that. So many of us don't really understand what variance is. The amount of times people message me with things like I've lost 4 games in a row, how do you deal with this? Is unreal and true variance breaks many of these guys.

You look like you're made of tough stuff matey and I have no doubt that you'll become a poker millionaire one day. No doubt at all.

Dom
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doodiewiz · Posted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 11:52 am Post subject:

Great read mate! Hope you make a million too..GL!!

BetMagicMoney · Posted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 1:52 pm Post subject:

tl;dr

I knew that you were think about posting this and im glad you did man, just seeing someone like you pull themselves out/through this is really inspiring and something we can all look upto.

keep grinding and im sure we'll see you open sitting 5Ks very soon Very Happy

BMM <3<3<3<3<3<3<3
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Borg7 · Posted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 4:30 pm Post subject:

Great post, Morgan
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