Playing draws aggressively

acceleration · Grinder Joined: 28 Jun 2011 Posts: 223

Ok, so 2nd hand of the match. No special reads.

To begin with, I want to say that I like to play my strong draws in an aggressive manner. I rather c/r FD on the flop than c/c and play only for a hit. However, what do we do when called ? Against a reg ? Against a fish ? Against a station ?? Well I think against a station we shouldn´t check raise in the first place.

I have FD + gutter, overall nice equity in the hand. I am kind of ready to go broke with my hand on the flop. But what do we do on the turn, when our opponent just flat calls ? Should we continue to bet ? I mean the Ace kind of hits more his range than it does ours, because he was the PFA. We also lose a lot of equity because now there is only one street left. However he is also not likely to have a big hand, because I´d expect tha majority of players to 3bet decent TP or an overpair on such a draw heavy flop. So yeah, I am lost on the turn in these spots. How do you soulreaders proceed here ?

Thanks

No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (2 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t1605)
SB (t1395)

Hero's M: 53.50

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7

, 9

SB bets t50, Hero calls t40

Flop: (t120) 3

, 5

, 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets t80, Hero raises t245, SB calls t165

Turn: (t610) A

(2 players)
Hero ???

chesslw · Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2011 8:50 pm Post subject:

I'm no soulreader but here is my response...

If he is a station- you shouldn't have checkraised on the flop. If he is tight passive- you should also definitely play your hand passively for the implied odds. If he is a fish/reg- you should have tells. There is no stereotypical fish or reg.

The A is a bigger part of our range than it is his- unless he would limp wewak a majority of buttons, and only raise stronger hands. It would only really improve 2 hands in his range to 2 pair (probably tptk would reraise flop), and I wouldn't expect him to float with A high unless you have some dynamic. He would also probably gii with A high flushdraw...

His flop flatting range in a vacuum looks a lot like top pair weak kicker at best, and imo mainly consists of draws that are not strong enough to gii (he is counting on his implied odds).

The first question you have to ask on the turn is- do I check or bet? I say you should bet fairly big and here are my reasons:

If you check, then your perceived range is never strong, and you have to call any bet anyway, because of your equity. If river bricks you are never going to make him fold anything apart from maybe a draw. So you should just bet and fold out random floats/bad draws, and also weak made hands that can't stand the heat. Basically imo you should play strong draws the same way as sets/2 pairs if you do choose to play them aggressively.

(On the other hand if you play them passively you can protect yourself against thin valuebets on later streets with your weak made hands)

Also if it goes check/check or check/call, then good luck getting any value when you hit your draw on the river...

Tbh your play is very high variance particularly with no reads. Checkraising the flop isn't obviously a mistake, but readless, it isn't especially +EV...

N86xps · Grinder Joined: 22 Jun 2011 Posts: 113

IMO before you semi-bluff you should plan in advance what happens if villain calls and you miss. You should also decide on your "bluffing outs". Ace looks like a reasonable bluffing out at first glance. But this is just another reason why it is nice to have reads: if you are not sure of your opponent's range on the flop, then it is difficult to be sure of which bluffing outs to choose.

I am quite new to poker, but in my opinion, calling a check-raise is either a very sofisticated play by a good player, OR a clueless play of a fish. When planning a check-raise it is not difficult to plan what to do if reraised, but if you get called that is a tough spot. After all, what you are doing is BUILDING a pot OOP, that has only 1/4 probability of improving for the next street. When the pot grows, then it is often difficult to stop your opponent from betting.

In the Bill Chen's mathematics of poker, there is an example of (toy) game with CARDS FACE UP between a made hand and a (strong) draw on the flop. When the stacks are big enough to allow 3 bets, then the optimal line is: draw bets - made hand calls. The draw would rather get all the money in right away, that is obviously happening if the made hand reraises. But for the made hand it is much more profitable to wait for a safe turn, and then bet. The draw could alternatively check, and then made hand would bet, and draw would JUST CALL, because otherwise it would have to surrender a much bigger pot on the turn. In this "game" noone wants to put in a second bet: the draw does not want it because made hand would flat call and thus mazimize his EV, the made hand does no want, because the draw would simply reraise all in and get to see both cards.

Of course, such a "game" is just a simplified mathematical "model". Anyway, it looks like something to think about. The best play IMO would be to just bet out straight away, and then reraise all in. If opp calls, then the pot is smaller, and you do not sacrifece TOO much expectation by missing the turn.

chesslw · Posted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 1:07 pm Post subject:

Haha I guess you've been reading the book I sent you.

I think that example above was what I meant about when you were saying you should slow play strong draws- when in fact in a clairvoyance game the made hand should call fairly large bets on the flop anyway.

So the "optimal" line would be to bet enough such that if you miss your draw, you still have odds to call any bet from the made hand on the turn (this is assuming your equity is above 50%, otherwise you shouldn't want to put money in on the flop at all).

N86xps · Grinder Joined: 22 Jun 2011 Posts: 113

N86xps · Grinder Joined: 22 Jun 2011 Posts: 113

Kim Cardassian · Posted: Wed Aug 03, 2011 4:05 am Post subject:

You seem to think soulreaders magically know what someone is holding.

Soulreaders simply apply patterns they've witnessed in earlier hands and then determine an accurate range for the current hand. This allows them to make the correct decision.

You have not given any information on previous patterns, so all you're asking is what the standard play in a vacuum would be.

Why are you checkraising here? Saying "I checkraise draws" is a stupid reason. What makes you believe a checkraise here is best?

Do you think he's often betting with weak made hands or air and do you want to test if he folds when you raise him?

Do you think he folds alot regardless and do you want to test if this also applies when you raise his bet?

Does he overplay bottom pair and shove it over your raise?

By figuring out why you raise in the first place the follow up when missing is pretty damn easy to determine. Raising draws is really overused. You often scare people enough that when you hit you will not get value on the river and sometimes even the turn, and your fold equity on the flop is often not that great.

I would bet 400 here. We have plenty of equity, and he could call with a ton of draws on the flop that he might fold on the turn. The only thing he can logically have is a 2 pair with an A or a A high FD, otherwise that A is a scarecard. Either way, thinking before you do something is the best way to avoid these difficult spots.

acceleration · Grinder Joined: 28 Jun 2011 Posts: 223

acceleration · Grinder Joined: 28 Jun 2011 Posts: 223

I want to post a hand here that I think relates to this:

It´s very early in the match, no particular reads nor I don´t think they´re needed. He raised couple of buttons, folded to couple of my pfr´s and that´s all so far.

Now I gave him similar range for going broke. I included hands like AA,KK and JJ for the times he will think: Oh, it´s early in the match, he folded to my preflop raises so far, I am gonna trap.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

142,560 games 0.005 secs 28,512,000 games/sec

Board: Js Ks 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.132% 50.07% 00.07% 71374 93.50 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 49.868% 49.80% 00.07% 70999 93.50 { KK+, JJ, 22, AKs, K2s+, AKo, K2o+ }

I don´t think that´s realistic range though.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

97,020 games 0.016 secs 6,063,750 games/sec

Board: Js Ks 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.043% 49.95% 00.10% 48458 93.50 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 49.957% 49.86% 00.10% 48375 93.50 { KK+, 22, AKs, K2s+, AKo, K7o+ }

So basically it´s either a flip and often times I am even ahead as I don´t even expect the majority of players to limp with KK kind of hands.

The real question I am asking however, is what is the best way to get the chips in the middle. You guys gave some examples above that for a draw it´s better to get all the chips in on the flop, because we have the best equity here with two streets left.

Therefore what´s the best play ? I think we can exclude the option of 3betting smaller on the flop as it´s pretty disgusting for the times the guy flats and we find ourselves commited on the turn w/o a made hand. Our equity really shrinks in that case.

But there is another option - just calling his flop raise, letting all his worse flush draws in his range. When we call pot will be t780 on the turn and we have t1090 behind (effective). But even now, what we do when turn bricks, we check and villain shoves (which he would likely do imo).

I think it´s best to go AI after his 3bet on the flop, if I ship, he has 37% pot odds which is break even for him to call with a FD in most cases:

(say we´d ship with such a hand and he has a FD)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: Js Ks 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.414% 61.41% 00.00% 608 0.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 38.586% 38.59% 00.00% 382 0.00 { Qs5s }

No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (2 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t1470)
Hero (BB) (t1530)

Hero's M: 51.00

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10

, A

SB calls t10, Hero bets t70, SB calls t70

Flop: (t180) J

, K

, 2

(2 players)
Hero bets t145, SB raises t290, Hero raises t1295 (All-In), SB calls t1090 (All-In)

I would appreciate any insights, opinions and thoughts about the hand and the whole topic Razz

tosapane · Newbie Joined: 12 Dec 2010 Posts: 32

so, in general when villian flats and u miss the draw on the turn you just can't get it in now.. so i usually check behind turn if its not a scare card for ure opponent but on the ace its a big double barrel imo and get it in on the river. While checking the turn will be much more difficoult to get ure opponent off his hand on the river since u checked the turn, and i think ure raise on the flop is a lil bit too big.. raise like to 200/210 and if you hit you can still get ure stack in with 2 big bets.
You can also consider 2nd barreling slight less than half pot but i like betting big because he is folding the ace a ton and to a big bet he could fold also draws

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