Martingale system

savrababa · Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:38 pm Post subject: Martingale system

Here is an idea..

Let's say that any given player has at least a 40% winrate in HUSNG's.
Suppose we have someone staking that guy with unlimited $$$.

If we put this player to play a $5 game and he wins we have a profit of $5 obviously.
If he looses we put him to play a $10 game.
If he wins we go back at $5.
If he looses we put him in a $20 game and so on.
Eventually he will win.
The profit we have every time he wins is $5.

I'm not going to try this obviously, but I thought it was a funny way to exploit the game Very Happy

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hjbear · Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:57 pm Post subject:

rake would be the negative factor i think
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savrababa · Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:26 pm Post subject:

True I forgot about rake.
That would screw the plan pretty badly.. Smile

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chesslw · Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:13 pm Post subject:

The fun things you can do with infinity...

If you like money, don't ever try this- not only for poker.

Also with "infinite" money it doesn't matter what strategy you use, you can't ever win or lose and will always end up with the same as you started with.

Simba · Enthusiast Joined: 30 Oct 2010 Posts: 84

It actually doesn't matter what the winrate is if your money is infinite.

To prove this, suppose that we win a proportion x of our games (0 < x < 1), and also assume (as is reasonable considering that we have infinite money), that we can play as high as we want. We can use this to circumvent rake by simply jumping up more than one step (or for simplicity, we can just assume that there is no rake, to avoid having to factor in the superficial above consideration).

Now, assume we play n games. We can consider the random variable Y ~ Bin(n, x) to model our situation. Now, we win money with probability P(Y > 0) = 1 - P(Y = 0) = 1 - (1 - x)^n.

Since we have infinite money, we consider lim(n -> inf) in the above.

lim(n -> inf) [1 - (1 - x)^n] = 1, since |1 - x| < 1, due to 0 < x < 1.

So no matter what the probability of winning a game is (as long as it's not 0), we make money in the long term.

By a very similar argument, you can actually prove that even a player winning 99.9% of his games will eventually go bust, if he plays an infinite number of games.

Of course from the above analysis we conclude... infinity is weird. Wink

chesslw · Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:01 pm Post subject:

Simba · Enthusiast Joined: 30 Oct 2010 Posts: 84

savrababa · Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 10:02 pm Post subject:

I guarantee you working in finance is nowhere near fun.
Also finance is not science. It is a way of complicating otherwise simple concepts, so that most people don't understand how money creates dept.

Regarding people playing the lottery or any other form of gambling, it has to do with various emotional decisions.
There is nothing rational about it.

From my experience working in the casino I would say that most degenerate gamblers kind of do this to justify their incompetence in various other tasks.
It gives them a good reason to say "I am cursed. I can't succeed because I am so unlucky" or something similar.
These people subconsciously want to loose money.
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chesslw · Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:25 am Post subject:

Haha. Lotteries can be +EV though- in the UK it can be +EV when there is a rollover, and it is very +EV with a double rollover (though variance is humongous). Even if you buy out all the tickets (I'm not sure if this is legal), there is a big chance that there are multiple jackpot winners (i.e. still big variance)...

You'd be surprised how many people are ignorant of basic maths.

My uncle once asked me to help him win a raffle by working out patterns in sequences...

savrababa · Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:24 am Post subject:

They put those notepads next to the roulettes in the casino.
They are for players to keep the sequence of numbers that came up so that they can break the roulette algorithm I guess Razz

You won't imagine how many people fall for this and sit and write down number after number to get some kind of edge... Very Happy

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